Oleh/By : DATO' SERI DR. MAHATHIR BIN MOHAMAD
Tempat/Venue : TOKYO, JAPAN
Tarikh/Date : 19/05/95
Tajuk/Title : THE INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON
"THE FUTURE OF ASIA"
THE FUTURE OF ASIA
I think I am qualified to speak on the future of my
country, Malaysia. I am not so sure I can forsee the future
of Asia.
2. However, having been invited to do so, I will try.
3. There was a time, not so very long ago, when all that
Asian countries wanted was to Westernise. By this they did
not mean industrialisation or achieving high per capita
income. They meant simply having a Europeanised society,
coats and ties and hats for women. Self-esteem was at its
lowest ebb among Asians and Asian nations then. They looked
down upon themselves as unworthy of preserving.
4. There were, of course, very good reasons for this
inferiority complex. Large chunks of Asia were colonised by
the Europeans, a few of whom were sufficient to rule
millions. The Europeans had the skills, the knowledge and
the manufacturing technology. Asians only had cottage
crafts. The Europeans were militarily powerful, better
organised and could impose their will.
5. Asians believed completely that the Europeans
were super-beings whose way of life could be copied but
whose achievements could never be equalled.
6. When Japan took on the Europeans in the Pacific War,
most Asians thought that Japan was being foolhardy. Japan's
defeat was expected. And, of course, after that defeat
Japan was not expected to recover. Asians would continue to
be subservient to the Europeans.
7. And as for the Europeans, they too were of the same
mind. They were superior and they would always remain
superior. They were so confident that no Asian nation would
be able to catch up with them that they could afford to be
charitable. And so Japan was allowed access to their huge
markets, unrestricted.
8. Too late they realised that their charity was
misplaced. Not only did Japan recover but such backward
countries as South Korea and Taiwan also seemed capable of
emulating Japan's economic miracle.
9. Historically Europeans have had very unpleasant
experience of Asians. The Mongols, the Ottoman Turks and
the Arabs had not only conquered or raided Europe but had
ravaged European lands, burning, killing and capturing their
people for slaves. For centuries they lived in fear of
periodical raids by the Huns i.e. the Mongol Khans and the
Turks. The Yellow Peril was very real to them. Although
they may not talk about it so much now, the fear of the
Yellow Peril is still very much there.
10. The recovery of Asian countries and their capacity, in
many cases, to oust the Europeans from the market places of
the world, cannot but awaken old fears of the Yellow Peril.
Asians may not like it but European antagonism towards Asian
economic expansion is going to figure a lot in the future of
Asia.
11. For the moment Asia is not progressing
uniformly. Much of the progress is taking place in East
Asia i.e. North East Asia and South East Asia. But already
it is becoming clear that Asian countries are quick to learn
from the experience of other Asian countries. They may not
feel up to emulating Western countries but they seem to
believe that what one Asian country can do, other Asian
countries can also do.
12. Beginning with South Korea and Taiwan's bid to
replicate Japan, the process has spread to the countries of
South East Asia. The effect of South East Asian countries
succeeding in industrialising is even more profound. If
largely brown South East Asians can do it, then everybody
should be able to do it. Development and progress is no
longer a mystery. And so China, the Indo-Chinese countries,
Burma, the South Asian countries, have all begun the process
of industrial development. Even the newly-independent
Central Asian Republics have shown interest and are avidly
following the progress of East Asia, to find out how
backward countries can rehabilitate themselves and develop.
13. In the meantime the East Asians are making so much
progress that trade between them now make up 40 percent of
their total trade. Clearly they are still at the beginning.
The potential is tremendous.
14. Presently China's GDP in Purchasing Power Parity (PPP)
terms is $2,855 billion while the per capita GNP is $435.
By comparison Malaysia's GNP per capita is $3,500. Surely
the Chinese are capable of catching up with Malaysia. When
it does, China's GDP should be around $23,000 billion. The
U.S. GDP is presently $6,387 billion. Even if the U.S.
moves ahead at three percent annual growth, it will not stay
ahead of China for long.
15. In fact the World Bank calculated that by the year 2020
China will be the world's largest economy, fully 40 percent
bigger than the second biggest economy, the United States of
America. The same analysis concluded that assuming a
surprise- free scenario, in PPP terms six of the ten biggest
economies in the world by the year 2020 will be in Asia.
Other than China, Japan will be number three, India number
four, fifth Indonesia, seventh South Korea, Thailand will be
the eighth while Taiwan will be the tenth.
16. Of course such predictions cannot be accurate. There
will be so many variables which will change the picture
radically. But unless there is a major war either between
the Asian nations themselves or between Asia and non-Asian
nations, the chances are good that these countries are going
to make it big.
17. The factor that contributed most to this hyperbolic
scenario is the demise of the Communist and Socialist
economic theories. The assumption that equality must mean
justice sounds logical and ideal. Indeed in many instances
equality does result in justice, as for example equality
before the law. But equality of wealth between members of
society does not result in justice or even fairness. It
actually results in everyone becoming poor and it
impoverishes the whole nation. It took the Russians 70
years to learn this simple fact.
18. Once Communism and Socialism were rejected, private
enterprise becomes possible. Admittedly many former
communists still feel private profits are sinful. But they
will no doubt learn and over time they will accept profit
motive as not only normal but actually helps to create and
spread wealth.
19. Politically the change will be more guarded. The
Communist will probably take a much longer time to discard
authoritarian rule in favour of democracy. This in itself
is not bad. Nothing is more unsettling than people held in
bondage for decades to suddenly become completely free.
Freedom goes to the head easily and quickly and before
anyone realises it, anarchy sets in.
20. The rapid adoption of democracy in a number of former
Communist countries has only increased crimes and
corruption. Governments have become weak and less durable.
Unfamiliar with the rule of law, they find themselves unable
to enforce it the way liberals are supposed to enforce the
law.
21. They are hardly to be blamed. Even the old democracies
are not quite capable of handling democracy. The rights of
the citizen are so honoured that they can form armed militia
with the expressed intention of over-throwing the Government
by violence. Since all they have done is to wear uniforms
and carry arms, including machine guns, in countries where
there is no dress code and everyone has a right to carry
arms, they cannot be considered as breaching the law. They
have to actually use their arms against the object of their
hate before any action can be taken against them. Even then
the punishment is likely to be mild. A life for a life is
considered as barbaric. For killing children and other
innocent people they will be given a life sentence and then
pardoned for good behaviour after serving 10 years.
22. Democracies are only beginning to learn that too much
freedom is dangerous. But they are not yet ready to do
anything about it.
23. Life has become unsafe in many democracies. And wealth
has not always brought happiness. Even the massive welfare
handouts have not done much good. There are many abuses and
there is corruption everywhere, in the Government and in the
business sector. Morals have decayed.
24. Aware of this, is it any wonder that the former
Communist countries in Asia are not convinced that
democracy, at least the Western variety, is the best system?
They are not yet willing to discard their authoritarian rule
for democracy as much as they are ready to accept the market
economy as a solution to their economic problem.
25. Still increasing wealth through the free market
economic system must result in the citizens of former
Communist countries demanding more freedom. But although
there will be more freedom there is little likelihood that
Asian countries of the future will adopt the Western style
of unlimited freedom.
26. Already those Asian countries which have adopted
Western ideas about democracy wholesale are finding ruling
their country rather difficult. Disruptive strikes and
riots undermine the economy and make life difficult for the
citizens. Abolition of religious instructions in Government
schools, while allowing absolute freedom of beliefs, has
resulted in a loss of direction and the emergence of
numerous cults, some of which are violent. Asians are now
seeing Buddhist cults which can be equally violent. A
democratic Government is not supposed to interfere unless
and until lives and property are lost.
27. Liberal democracy may be good for the religious
deviationists and cultists. The innocent victims may not
think so. They have a right to their lives too.
28. The right to strike is regarded as one of the
fundamental rights of the workers in democracies. But what
is the basic premise of a strike? It is nothing more than a
trial of strength between employers and employees, a trial
to see who can withstand the most amount of damage. It is
like asking two men in a quarrel to fight each other until
one gives up from the pain inflicted. Is this how a
civilised world settles conflicts? If there is a dispute,
then go to war.
29. One would have thought that conflicts in this modern
age should be settled by negotiations, by arbitration or by
courts of law. But Western democracy advocates tests of
strength as a means to settle disputes. They actively urge
this. They even try to subvert the workforce of
newly-emerging countries in the name of workers' rights.
They know full well that the liberal exercise of these
rights will retard the development of these struggling
countries. But that is not about to deter them from forcing
these rights on the workers of these countries. Of course,
they are aware that industrial unrest in these countries
will only benefit the workers in the developed countries.
Don't anyone dare to suggest that they may have ulterior
motives! They merely want to protect workers of the world.
30. Asian countries must be forgiven if they still suspect
ulterior motives. They are not convinced that the Western
form of democracy is the ultimate and the best form of
democracy. And so they have begun to define their own
interpretation of democracy.
31. Freedom, yes, but responsibility also. If two
centuries ago Americans insisted that there should be `no
taxation without representation', Asians of today believe
there should be no freedom without responsibility.
32. For Asians, the community, the majority comes first.
The individual and the minority must have their rights but
not at the unreasonable expense of the majority. The
individuals and the minority must conform to the mores of
society. A little deviation may be allowed but unrestrained
exhibition of personal freedom which disturbs the peace or
threatens to undermine society is not what Asians expect
from democracy.
33. Democracy is a method of Government. It is good only
if the result is good. Here I am reminded of a television
report on the Israelis killing Palestinian refugees in
Lebanon almost 10 years ago. The American guest commentator
expressed his horror at such killings. But he ended up by
saying that the U.S. must support Israel because it was the
only democratic country in the region. Apparently you can
kill in the name of democracy.
34. Malaysia must admit without any apology that its
democracy is not of the Western variety. When a Muslim
religious group began to deviate from the true teachings of
Islam the leaders were detained. They had to defend their
beliefs to people well- versed in Islam. They failed to
convince the learned Muslim scholars of the basis of their
teachings. Finally they were themselves convinced that they
had deviated and were persuaded to return to the true faith.
35. The action to bring back these deviationists was taken
fairly early. Had they been allowed to go on until they
stage some form of violent attacks on the people, it would
have been too late. Of course, now that they have been
pacified, many felt that the action of the Government was
undemocratic. But Malaysia believes it is democratic to
anticipate violence and protect the people.
36. Whether the West admits it or not, David Koresh and the
Jones cult were the products of the Western form of
democracy. So also is the recent bombing in Oklahoma. The
Michigan Militia Corp has as yet done no real harm. But you
can bet that sooner or later they will be using those guns
which they democratically own.
37. Oppression by democrats is no less painful than
oppression by dictators. Both should be condemned. Asia
cannot accept Western mores wholesale. Asia should instead
pick and chose which aspects of democracy it wants.
Uniformity should not be a feature of Asian democracy. Each
country should be allowed to tailor its democracy to cater
to the characteristics of its people and their needs. The
people should decide through the basic democratic process
what kind and what degree of democracy they want.
38. The same applies to human rights. Asian human rights
need not be a fair copy of Western human rights. The
individual and the minority must be allowed their freedom
but such freedom must not deprive the majority of their
rights.
39. So far some Asian countries have refused to
bow to Western pressures on democracy and human rights.
Some, of course, still equate modernisation with total
Westernisation, total acceptance of all the norms and even
the idiosyncracies of the West. But the likelihood is that
Asian countries of the future will be democratic but
different, not only in relation to the West but even in
relation to each other. Hopefully, they will learn to
tolerate the differences and not feel guilty about not being
uniformly democratic.
40. Apart from being more democratic and subscribing to
their own perceptions as to what constitute human rights;
apart from accepting the free market economy there can be no
certainty about the future of Asia. Several scenarios are
possible. Based upon Asian history and the present state of
Asian countries, all these scenarios are possible.
41. First, taking the worst possible scenario, Asian
countries would go to war against each other. It may start
with disputes over the Spratlys. China insists that the
South China Sea belongs to China along with all the islands,
reefs and the minerals in the sea. To emphasise its claims,
China builds a series of shelters for Chinese fishermen.
They look suspiciously like military installations.
42. The ASEAN countries which by then include the
Indo-Chinese state become agitated. Unable to take on a
China that has become the most powerful economy in the
world, ASEAN looked to Japan. Japan maintains a strictly
neutral stand. The Chinese market is too valuable.
43. The United States offers to help and is welcomed by the
ASEAN states. The Pacific Fleet began to patrol the South
China Sea. Clashes occur between the Chinese Navy and the
United States Navy. The United Nations says it is in no
position to intervene but appeals for the countries to
settle their dispute through negotiation. All ignored the
United Nations. 44. China declares war on the
United States and a full scale war breaks out. A nuclear
bomb is dropped on Beijing, a clean bomb which killed only
about 10 million people. China retaliated by firing nuclear
missiles at the west coast of America. By an accident one
warhead fell near Tokyo.
45. I will leave the rest to your imagination. This is one
scenario of the future of Asia.
46. Another scenario is where all the Asian countries
accept the status quo. They may grow but must never
overtake the West. Asian countries may not talk to each
other on any issue or act in concert on anything. They are
all members of the United States-led APEC.
47. World trade will be managed by the European Union (EU)
and NAFTA, which by then would have come together to form
the world's biggest trading bloc. This is presently being
urged by a senior member of the EU and it is not unthinkable
that this would happen. With their trading clout, the
EU-NAFTA confederation could dictate terms to the rest of
the world.
48. The World Trade Organisation (WTO) would be placed
under the EU-NAFTA and through the WTO, world trade will be
managed so that all the countries of the world would get
what is determined as their fair share of the trade. China
would still be big but not as big as the United States.
China's trade with the EU-NAFTA will be fully regulated.
49. All markets will be opened to everybody. The small
banks in developing economies like Malaysia for example will
have the right to set up branches in the villages of
Euromerica. Reciprocally, American banks can set up
branches in Malaysian villages. Mergers take place daily and
eventually there will be only a few mega banks controlled by
the developed economies.
50. Some Asian countries revert to producing
commodities while others prosper on the tourist trade,
catering for travellers from rich countries. Manufacturing
is best done by those countries with the technology, the
capital, the marketing network and the know-how.
51. There will be no risk of war as countries will not be
allowed to arm beyond what is required to keep the arms
trade profitable. There will be occasional massacres as in
Rwanda. A few hundred thousand people will be killed. As
this is not war, the United Nations will not do anything
beyond regretting. So much for the second scenario.
52. Can there be a third scenario in the future of Asia?
Yes there can be and, indeed, the third scenario is the most
likely scenario.
53. In this scenario the countries of Asia all adopt the
free market system while developing their own versions of
democracy. There will be no hurry about political reforms.
They see the chaos and the violence in the Western
democracies and they attribute this to democratic extremism.
Too much of a good thing is bad, even if the thing is called
democracy. They therefore prefer to be cautious,
democratising only slowly and rejecting certain disruptive
practices of Western democracy. As a result the Asian
countries remain largely stable and are able to develop at a
fast pace.
54. With the universal adoption of the free market system,
there will be a huge crossflow of capital and know-how. The
economies expand at high rates, far higher than those of
Western countries.
55. The less developed Asian countries will be helped out
through investments and know-how by other developed Asian
countries. As other Asian countries prosper they invest in
each other's country, and indeed in Africa, Europe and the
Americas, generally boosting the world's economy. 56.
The Asian countries become so rich that the rest of the
world depend on the Asian market. Asia becomes the
locomotive of growth for the rest of the world.
57. The initial attempt to obstruct the economic growth of
Asian states was overcome through the Asian countries
consenting to talk to each other and to act against managed
trade as proposed by some non-Asian countries. Seeing the
possibility of losing the rich Asian market if they persist,
the non-Asian countries stopped obstructing. Agreement was
reached through the WTO that world trade should be free and
there should be no social clauses attached to it. In any
case it was becoming clear that prosperity had led to better
pay and working conditions for Asian workers, more democracy
and greater respect for human rights.
58. Under these conditions, the Asian countries grew even
faster. But the rest of the world benefited too as Asians
began to buy more from them, invest in these countries,
introduce better work ethics and, of course, boost the
tourist industry through their high spending travels.
59. All trade blocs were dissolved. The only trade bloc is
the WTO. Of course, conditions were not always ideal. But
differences were settled through the WTO, through third
parties or through negotiations. This is the third
scenario.
60. What our future will be can be largely determined by
us. I am no more able to predict it than the next man.
Even renowned futurist have been found to be well off the
mark. 1984 has come and gone and we have not seen state
control and Big Brother as described by George Orwell. But
instead we see a lot of miracles which have not been
predicted at all.
61. But if we want something we should work at it. The
third scenario is idealistic but as I said it is achievable.
It will be a much more equitable world. Asians should not
try to get rich at the expense of the rest of the world.
Asians should be ready to share their wealth. In sharing
they will not lose. Indeed, they will enrich themselves.
62. In the late 1960's Japan began to invest in Malaysia
despite conditions for investment not being favourable.
63. Today Malaysia is one of the more prosperous developing
countries. It is the 17th biggest importer in the world.
And a lot of what it imports comes from Japan. The wealth
that the Japanese created in Malaysia through their
investments now returns to Japan. In addition Malaysia is a
good debtor, paying back cheap Yen loans with costly Yens.
64. Clearly enriching your trading partners enriches you.
Asians should always remember this. It does not hurt to buy
even the things you do not want from your trading partners
in order to reduce the trade imbalance, to enrich them. It
costs much more to defend yourself in subtle trade wars such
as effective and continuous revaluation of your currency.
65. Asian countries, as they become rich, should not be
greedy. They should not form trade blocs. They should not
keep their wealth within their countries only. They should
invest abroad and open their markets to fair competition.
66. If they do all these then the future for Asia will be
very bright indeed. And the future of the world will be
bright too.
67. We can have any scenario we want. The future can be
determined by us, if we want to. If we don't, then someone
will determine it for us. We can't blame them if that
future favours them. It is all up to us.
|
|