Oleh/By : DATO' SERI DR. MAHATHIR BIN MOHAMAD
Tempat/Venue : BEIJING, CHINA
Tarikh/Date : 26/08/96
Tajuk/Title : THE 2ND MALAYSIA - CHINA FORUM 1996
1. I have been asked to present a Malaysian
perspective on the `Asia Century'. By this I
presume we mean the 21st Century which many have
predicted will be the Century when Asia will
dominate the world. This idea of domination by a
continent is too simplistic and is really not in
keeping with the times.
2. It is more simple and accurate to describe the
19th century as the century of Europe. In fact
European domination of the world started earlier
than that. If there is a significant date, it was
1492, the year Columbus `discovered' America i.e. if
we can concede that he discovered it. The misnamed
`Indians' were there before him. They had already
discovered their land from the frozen North to Tiera
Del Fuego in the extreme tip of the horn of South
America. But the Europeans have always considered
Europe as the centre of the world and all geography
and history must be related to it. And so we East
Asians are in the Far East. As the world is round,
we have every right to use ourselves as the
reference point and describe America as being in the
East and Europe in the Far East. But we Asians are
too polite to be assertive. Actually of course
China was the true Middle Kingdom and if there is
going to be an Asian Century, then China should
resume being the reference point.
3. Part of the 20th Century has been described as
the American Century. In the aftermath of World
War II America indeed dominated the world. Fifty
percent of the world's economy was generated by the
United States. It could afford to be generous then
and it was. But in the fourth quarter of the 20th
Century America or more correctly the United States
is no longer the dominant world economic power. It
is, however, still the world's dominant military
power. If we take this fact into consideration, then
the 20th Century can be labelled the United States
century. Of course the demise of Communism and the
emasculation of the USSR make this assertion quite
true.
4. Now there is much talk about the next century
being the Asian Century. The European century and
the American century crept on us unawares. We did
not realise what was happening until they had
happened. And so we were not able to adjust, much
less to resist. One by one we in Asia and Africa
and the Americas submitted.
5. But the so-called Asian century, i.e. the 21st
Century has been announced early. Indeed it has been
a subject worthy of dialogues and seminars. Its
implications have been widely discussed, in
particular the danger that it poses to humanity at
large.
6. It is the yellow Peril all over again, only
this time there are tinges of brown. There is fear
that Genghis Khan and the whole Tartar-Mongol hordes
are about to ravage and savage the world, killing
and raping and running away with flaxen-haired
damsels after the gallant men have been massacred.
7. China has come in for special attention. For
years it had been condemned for being Communist and
isolationist, practising a close centrally planned
economy. Now it has opened up and has adopted a
version of the universally acclaimed market system.
Instead of being welcomed to the fold, it is looked
upon with fear and suspicion. The World Bank has
sounded the alarm by predicting that China will
emerge in the 21st Century as the greatest world
economic power. And fear of China has mounted.
8. Suggestions have been made that China will be a
threat if it is not already one. Action must be
taken to curb China's increasing economic clout.
Alliances must be formed against it, military
alliances in particular, but economic alliances
also. If China joins any grouping, that grouping
must have the presence of a particular Western super
power. Japan and Korea have been told to beware.
They must not enter into any alliances in which
China is a member while Western powers aren't.
9. That China, unlike the West, had never
conquered much less colonised its neighbours, should
not be taken to mean that it will not do so now.
China is big and it is powerful and so it must have
imperial ambitions.
10. That there are today powers outside Asia who
have in fact tried to arrogate to themselves
extraterritorial rights do not seem to faze them
when they play up the China bogey. We Asians must
trust non-Asians because Asians are less
trustworthy. It hurts us Asians that people should
tell us to trust them simply because they are not
Asians. The implication is that we ourselves are
untrustworthy.
11. The frame of mind of a lot of people regarding
the Asian Century is not healthy. Yet the Asian
Century is not likely to materialise even. Asia is
not Europe. Asia is only an arbitrary geographical
entity. It is not a political entity. It is not
even an ethnic entity. The peoples who inhabit Asia
are so different from each other that they should be
identified not as Asians but as distinct ethnic
groups. While Europeans and Americans largely
follow one religion, the variety of religions that
Asians believe in is quite astounding. Animism,
paganism and all the other known religions of the
world are not only to be found in the Asian
continent but they clearly divide Asians into
bitterly antagonistic groups. In the extreme West
of the Asian Continent, the Muslim Arabs are still
fighting their age-old enemy, the Hebrew Jews.
In South Asia Hindus are still fighting Muslims and
Buddhists are still fighting Hindus.
12. In the so-called Far East, the Chinese and
Koreans are still glaring at the Japanese, when
Europe had already forgiven the Germans and world
Jewry seem prepared to overlook and forget the
atrocities committed by the Nazis. Asians cannot
yet forget the comfort women, although the
generation who fought the war are almost all dead
now.
13. With all this diversity can there be an Asian
century? Even in the economic field their
development is uneven. While many Asian countries
are impoverished, others are wallowing in great
wealth. Most of the economic growth is happening
only in one corner of Asia, in East Asia. Even
South East Asia is not really developed
economically. Some are still dependent on aid and
are therefore not about to confront the West, the
principal members of the aid clubs.
14. The East Asians from where the Asian shock
troops for the Asian Century are supposed to come,
are unlikely to cooperate with each other. The idea
of an East Asian Caucus has been rejected by major
East Asian economies simply because they feel their
loyalties do not lie with Asia. One gets the
feeling that when it comes to the crunch they are
quite likely to turn against their fellow Asians
rather than against the non-Asians, in the economic
field and probably in the military field also.
15. Most Asians have not been able to get over the
feeling of inferiority that decades and centuries of
colonialism have wrought in them. They are
politically independent but psychologically they are
still colonised. The desire to please the non-
Asians is strong among them. Their value system and
their way of thinking is still very much dominated
by Western thinkers. Their youth in particular ape
the non-Asians in dress, hair styles and behaviour.
16. The point I am trying to make is that the Asian
Century, if indeed there will be one, will pose no
threat to anyone. They are likely to implode as a
result of their own weight and centripetal
pressures. Some of them will be powerful, but they
will be powerful on their own, as countries of Asia
and not as Asians of the Asian continents. And as
countries they can be dealt with the way other
countries are dealt with. In fact other countries
in Asia, far from ganging up with their powerful
Asian neighbours are more likely to try and curb
them. Certainly they will compete with the
achievers among them. In the process the powerful
will get weakened and so diminish their threat to
the rest of the world.
17. However, it is hoped that there will be no
confrontation among Asian countries, nor should
there be between powerful Asian countries and non-
Asians. I would like to think that powerful Asian
economies will serve as the locomotives of growth
not just for other Asian countries but for the whole
world.
18. We have repeated ad nauseam that the world is
getting smaller; it is becoming a village. There is
very little privacy in a village and there will
similarly be less privacy in the global village. We
will all be able to look over each other's
shoulders. There will be satellites everywhere with
the capability for very minute definition. People
will be able to see everything that everyone is
doing. Secrecy would be practically impossible.
19. What this means is that we, the nations of the
world, will not be able to spring surprises on each
other. And surprise is the single most important
element in any military or economic adventure. Only
Japan managed to surprise the unsuspecting world
economically. No other Asian will be allowed to do
the same again.
20. The massing of troops or the sailing of a fleet
in any direction will be on television watched by
everyone everywhere. Pearl Harbour and Tora Tora
cannot happen now. We are informed that the burying
of their massacred victims by the Serbs was recorded
on video and still. The testing of weapons, nuclear
or otherwise, will be fully observed. If there is
going to be a war there will be a war but there will
be no victory for anyone, only total and final
destruction of the world. No matter how powerful a
nation is it will not relish self-destruction. The
present maneuvering is to ensure that only one side
has the capacity to destroy the others. We should
welcome this, except that that side has made it
clear that it is as capable of bullying as the
potential Asian super-power. Our choice is really
between one super terror and another, and that is no
choice at all.
21. But the likelihood of Asia dominating or of one
Asian nation dominating the world is actually a
fanciful dream. The more likely scenario is a world
in which there are many powers, economic powers
mainly. These powers are not going to be all Asian.
There will be, as there are now, European and
American powers, each a match for any of the others.
All these economic powers in the East and the West,
in Asia and outside Asia, will act as the
locomotives of growth for the rest of the world.
22. They will invest in the poor countries and they
will be the markets for the products of the poor
countries, products which will be manufactured by
their own subsidiaries. In the process the poor
countries will be enriched and then of course they
will buy the products of the rich countries. So in
investing in the poor countries the rich countries
will actually be developing markets for their own
products. Surely this will be better than trying to
stifle the economic growth of the poor.
23. If this should happen and it is likely that it
would happen, then the 21st Century will not be an
Asian Century; it will be the century when the world
takes precedence over the narrow interest of
continents or nations. This is a better scenario
for all the denizens of the world.
24. I am sure everyone will opt for this scenario
rather than inter-continental confrontations which
the Asian Century conjures. But the century of the
world will not happen if we all talk of the Asian
Century, especially when we openly voice or fears
over the possibility that some Asian nations might
become powerful. We should downplay this Asian
Century thing but play up the Century of the world,
the century when the world comes together, to build
greater prosperity for everyone.
25. Even now we can see how we need each other, how
continents and countries need each other. The
wealth of East Asia did not originate entirely in
East Asia. On the contrary much of it originated
from trade between the Asian countries and the West;
Europe and America. Europe and America served as
the engine of growth for Japan, Korea, Taiwan and
Singapore and now of the so-called tigers of South
East Asia.
26. It is true that trade between East Asian
countries is growing by leaps and bounds. This is
only natural. As the East Asian countries grow
richer then trade will grow, trade between
themselves and trade between them and the rest of
the world. Let us remember that when East Asia was
poor, trade between Europe and America was greater
than trade between the West and Asia. Trade goes
where there is wealth.
27. Asians, no matter how rich they may be, will
not forsake non-Asian countries and continents.
They are not snooty. If they smell money they will
follow their noses. They have already said that
they do not want to form trade blocs. They insist
they believe in open regionalism. But clearly the
West does not seem to trust them, to take them at
their words.
28. Perhaps the West have reasons for doubting the
words of the Asians. Some Asian countries have
always been unwilling to open up their markets.
They say they want to; they say they are, but they
create all kinds of obstacles, non-tariff barriers
against trade. How can you believe what the Asians
say! The West is justified in not trusting the
Asians. But is it fair to tar all the Asians with
the same brush? Some Asian countries have been open
all the time. And some are obviously opening up now.
The process is slow but it is happening.
29. On the other hand, although the West seems
open, it is simply because they believe that Asians
would never have the products, manufactured goods in
particular, to compete in their market. They were
generous until suddenly they realised that their
monopoly of the manufacturing industry had been
broken. The cheap poor quality Asian goods which
had challenged them in the past and which they had
carelessly brushed aside, had suddenly changed.
Asian goods had become high quality goods while the
price remained low. At this stage the West felt
they could no longer be generous. And so they took
measures to obstruct Asian products, some of which
measures can only be regarded as unethical.
30. Asians should really distrust the ethnic
Europeans. But they don't. They still believe in
the integrity of the Europeans. And they keep on
trying to conform to the onerous conditions placed
on them in order to continue trading with the
Europeans.
31. If only the ethnic Europeans can overcome this
prejudices, trade and other intercourse between
Asian countries and the ethnic Europeans of Europe
and America would get bigger and healthier. If they
do, then the 21st century should usher in the
century of the world, the century of true
international inter-dependence.
32. Again I say, we all should cease talking about
the impending Asian Century. We should talk about
the World Century instead. Truly there is merit and
profit in the countries of the world believing in
being members of the international community than in
being Asians, Europeans, Africans, Latinos, etc.
33. If I may I would like to talk about a Malaysian
experiment which may have some relevance to the idea
of being interdependent members of the world
community of nations.
34. In Malaysia as in other countries the
Government regarded the private sector as selfish
and avaricious. The administration must keep itself
apart from the business community. They should make
life as difficult as possible for the business
people. Rules and regulation, laws and red tapes
were designed to impress upon the business people
the superiority of the administrators. The business
people were made to realise that although they may
have all the money but they will always be at the
bottom of the pecking order.
35. Suddenly it dawned upon the elected Government
of Malaysia that this confrontative stance of the
administration against the business community was
not contributing at all to the well-being of the
nation. If we must have the private sector, why not
cooperate with them. And so Malaysia officially
adopted the Malaysia Incorporated concept despite
the fact that Japan Incorporated was regarded as a
kind of sneaky arrangement between the Japanese
administration and the business community.
36. To cut a long story short, the change from a
confrontative stance to one of cooperation between
two entities within a nation resulted in
accelerating the development of Malaysia. There
must have been other factors of course but a
business-friendly administration expedited
approvals, the main obstacle in the development of
any country. And so Malaysia today is very
different from what it was before the adoption of
the Malaysia Incorporated concept.
37. The lesson of this experience is obvious,
cooperation is better for everyone than
confrontation. Now if instead of fearing Asian
countries and attempting to obstruct their progress,
the West cooperates and helps instead, all will
profit in one way or another. There will be less
time wasted on finding ways and means to frustrate
each other and to delay what must happen some day
anyway.
38. Malaysia believes in prospering thy neighbour,
not beggaring thy neighbour. Malaysia believes that
by prospering thy neighbour Malaysia will prosper
also. On a grander scale if the West will help Asia
to prosper, the West will prosper too. Indeed if
Asia and the West prosper, then the whole world will
prosper, including Africa and Latin America.
39. There will then be no Asian Century. There
will be for the first time a world century - a
century of prosperity for everyone. And all that is
needed is to stop making a bogey of Asian countries.
We do not want to be prosperous for the purpose of
making others poor. It is not a zero sum game that
we are after. A world of haves and have nots adds
nothing to the sum total of the achievement of this
modern world. A world of haves will result in
creating more wealth for everyone.
40. Perhaps this sounds too idealistic. But if we
are not allowed to have ideals then life would
become very barren indeed. Ideals are for striving
towards. We may not achieve this high aspiration
but we may get some way towards it.
41. As I said at the beginning I have been asked to
talk on the `Asia Century'. For an Asian, it is a
tantalisingly attractive idea, most appealing to the
Asian ego. But this is not the 19th century or even
the early 20th century. The 21st Century will see a
different world, a world so shrunken that we cannot
even recognise borders anymore. We are told that
with Information Technology we have to accept a
borderless world. If there is to be a market it
will no longer be a European market or an American
market or an Asian market. It will be a world
market in which no continent or country can be
neglected. With this there can be no isolating
anyone, neither countries nor continents.
42. Europe has become the European Union, America
has NAFTA, the Pacific has APEC etc. Everywhere
countries are merging, across borders and across
continents. If there is any division at all it is
within continents. Asia is divided. Europe and
America are not. And so although there was a
European Century, an American Century, there cannot
be an Asian Century. It is just not in keeping with
the times.
43. Some countries in Asia will emerge as great
economic powers. But most will be mediocre or
actually poor. Just because a few will be rich and
presumably powerful does not mean that Asia would be
powerful. The average Asian per capita will remain
very low by comparison at least, if not in absolute
terms. The situation will not be deserving the
appellation, the Asian Century. It cannot be
described as the East Asian Century even.
44. Let us forget these ego massaging theme, the
Asian Century. Let us not make a bogey of it. If
China becomes, by sheer weight of numbers, the
world's greatest economic entity, it will still not
become the Middle Kingdom again. There will be no
Silk Road, no Genghiz Khan, no Tartar or Mongol
hordes. But there will be a lot of Asians and
ethnic Europeans scurrying around to do business in
the Century of the world. Excepting for Japan,
technologically the ethnic Europeans will still have
the edge. Asians will continue to buy European
technology and apply it to their business. And the
world will be richer for it.
45. Besides, the peoples of the world are going to
be more and more mobile. They are going to migrate,
at times in very large numbers. They will not be so
easily assimilated. As a result there will be
practically no single ethnic nation. All countries
will have multiracial population like Malaysia.
Most of them will not only remember their roots,
they are going to retain their links with their
countries of origin.
46. So far we have seen only African, Arab and
Asian migration to European countries. The day will
certainly come when Europeans will migrate and
settle in Asian and African countries. They will
come from Eastern Europe initially but eventually
the Western Europeans will follow.
47. In the new Central Asian Republics there are
already Russians, Ukrainians and Germans, beside the
Koreans. These Europeans apparently live quite
comfortably not in exclusive enclaves but mixed with
the people of Turkic origin. It is not too
difficult to imagine other Europeans settling in
other Asian countries. In Africa, European settlers
have always been common.
48. The implication is that Asian may not mean
Asian any more in the 21st Century. The countries
may be of Asia but the peoples will be mixed, with
increasingly larger European minorities. The cross
fertilisation of cultures will change the character
of Asia as it will change Europe and America.
49. The result will again be no monolithic Asia to
dominate the 21st Century. Again there cannot be an
Asian Century.
50. The Asian Century is a myth, a tantalising myth
for Asians, a scary myth for Europeans; but a myth
nevertheless. No one should be flattered by myths
nor should anyone be frightened by them. Let us all
forget this Asian Century myth and settle down to
make the World Trade Organisation (WTO) a great
organisation that will benefit rich and poor alike;
an organisation dedicated to international
interdependence and friendship, free of arm-twisting
and big-power dominance. Our next enemy is still in
Mars, struggling to evolve from a one-cell animal to
something like the creatures we are familiar with on
earth. That evolution will take a few million
years, as it did on earth. We have ample time to
prepare. Let us prepare for that distant
eventuality by strengthening the earth through
mutual enrichment. Let us now begin the creation of
the Century of Planet Earth.
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