Oleh/By : DATO' SERI DR. MAHATHIR BIN MOHAMAD
Tempat/Venue : LE ROYAL MERIDIEN, BAHRAIN
Tarikh/Date : 08/04/97
Tajuk/Title : THE 5TH GULF ECONOMIC FORUM
ANNUAL CONFERENCE
1. Firstly, I would like to thank the organiser of this
Conference, the Gulf Economic Forum, for inviting me here
today. I have chosen to speak on the topic `Building the
Global Commonwealth of the 21st Century". This topic is
particularly relevant as we are today not only on the
brink of a new century, but we are also poised on the
edge of a new millennium. The need for a single global
world of peace and prosperity is imperative.
2. Exactly one thousand years ago, as the so-called
`civilised world' gyrated towards the end of the first
millennium, towards the year 1000 A.D., Europe apparently
was in the grips of despair and despondency. The learned
clerics had divined from their scriptures, it seemed,
that exactly one thousand years after the birth of Jesus
Christ, the whole world would come to an end. It would
be the coming of the Apocalypse.
3. A blanket of pessimism and hopelessness smothered
whatever enterprise dared to raise its head. Effort was
eroded. Endeavour was cribbed. What was the use of
enterprise, effort and endeavour, if the world was
inexorably moving towards "doomsday"?
4. According to one European historian: "Buildings of
every sort were suffered to fall into ruins. It was
thought useless to repair them, when the end of the world
was so near". Stories were told of rich men surrendering
wagon-loads of jewels in the hope that the end of the
world "would find them in a state of grace".
5. As we now move towards the end of the second
millennium and the beginning of a new century, it would
be foolish of me to come `before you with talk of
`boomsday', of a future full of promise and sunshine,
ripe for the taking.
6. The 21st century will obviously be every bit as
challenging as the murderous 20th century, when 160
million have so far died from war, when three billion
people, more than one in every two human beings, exists
on merely US$2 a day -- despite all the advances in the
fields of science, of communication, food production and
thus the possibilities for a world without poverty,
living in peace, stability and justice.
7. Cynicism is natural. Realism is absolutely
essential. But I do believe a new world is ready to be
built. If we can cherish the vision for a better world,
for a truly new world order; if we can find the will, if
we can summon the strength, if we can persist with the
tenacity, the 21st century could be mankind's greatest
century. There truly is a chance for a new beginning in
the new millennium.
8. I have only two points to make before you today.
First, you are in West Asia. You are not `the Middle
East', to the east of Europe, the middle of the East.
You can locate yourself in the middle of the world if you
so choose. West Asia on the other hand is part of Asia.
By all means look north. Look west. Do not neglect the
south. But whatever you do, do not forget to go east --
as you did in history, to the benefit of us in your east,
to the benefit of the Europeans to your north, and to
your own benefit. You are the first Western people to
reach the Malay Peninsular, now a part of Malaysia. To
us you were and you are Westerners - not just the
Europeans.
9. We in Malaysia, we in the ASEAN countries, we in
what the Europeans insist on calling "the Far East" need
you and want you to be with us, in the making of our
future and we believe your future too. And you have a
vital interest in being with us, in profiting from the
most dynamic economic development region in the history
of the world.
10. Second, although Asia looks set, Insya-Allah to once
again return to its place in history; although Asia will
probably see the return of history, what we must seek to
build is not the Century of Asia, not the Age of Asia,
where Asia will be ascendant, will be dominant, will hold
sway. Instead, what we must, along with the rest of
mankind, try to build is the Century of the World - which
affords more promise to all who deserve it, which
provides reward to all who have earned it. We must
strive together towards a single Global Commonwealth,
which is propelled by the logic of cooperative
prosperity, which is considerate of all of Allah's
creations, which is caring of all the children of Adam.
11. Despite the finest efforts of the Asiaskeptics,
largely congregated in the so-called `West', I am
convinced that the so-called `Far East' will increasingly
be the centre of economic gravity of this planet. You
must resolve to be part of the rise of this New Asia
initiated by the East Asian countries.
12. In the Nineteenth Century, when Europe grew by three
percent over an extended period of time, this was called
"the Industrial Revolution". For fifty years now, the
major economies of East Asia stretching from Japan to
Indonesia, the world's most populous Muslim nation, have
been growing between two to three times faster. They
have been galloping at a pace and for a duration never
before seen in human history.
13. It is no surprise that the writers of the West
struggling to understand what is happening have decided
to call this, `the East Asian Miracle'. The results have
truly been astounding and miraculous. We are not just
people, or economies or even countries. They say we are
dragons and tigers.
14. Believe it or not, at the time when India and
Pakistan achieved independence, the Japanese were much
poorer than the Indians and the Pakistanis. Hong Kong
and Singapore were hopeless economies. The Indonesians
were impoverished. My own country, at the time of our
independence in 1957, had a per capita income of US$227.
Malaysia, this Muslim country, managed to catch up with
the per capita income of Haiti, the poorest country in
the Americas, only in 1960.
15. Today, everyone knows the per capita income of
Japan. The people of Hong Kong and Singapore are
substantially richer than the people of the United
Kingdom, their former masters or soon-to-be former
masters.
16. Malaysia's per capita income last year was US$4,374.
Haiti today is still the poorest country in the Americas.
Indeed, in terms of purchasing power parity, of what our
money can buy, if my country were located in the "Western
Hemisphere", Malaysia would today have the third highest
standard of living in all of the Americas, coming only
after the United States and Canada. I am not boasting
but there is a need to put things in their proper
perspective.
17. As recently as fifteen years ago, Malaysia lived
from what we could take from under the ground and what we
could grow on it. The pillars of the Malaysian economy
were agriculture and mining. We have always been a
trading nation, seeking prosperity through buying and
selling to the world. In 1980, only 24 percent of our
exports consisted of manufactured goods. Today, 82
percent of our exports are manufactured goods. We now
have to import rubber and tin for our industries,
commodities in which we were once the biggest producers
and exporters in the world.
18. In the short space of 15 years we have managed to
become the fourth most industrialised economy in the
world in terms of population size. In terms of
percentage of industrial output to total GDP, in terms of
the percentage of workers employed in industry, and in
terms of the percentage of manufactured goods in our
export basket, we are among the first five in the world.
19. Having in the last fifteen years moved from being
an agricultural economy to becoming an industrial state,
we now have to grapple with the transition in the near
future to the post-industrial society.
20. The results of the so-called East Asian `miracle'
for my country and the other dragons and tigers of East
Asia have truly been quite remarkable. But a miracle, a
simple wave of the wand or the incantation of magical
words it is not and it has never been. We were not lucky
enough to have been born with a silver spoon in our
mouth. Still less, with a magic wand in our hand.
21. In specifics, we all accomplished what we have
accomplished according to the `Sinatra Principle'. We all
did it our way. But more than that: we also all did it the
old fashioned way, without mystery of magic, but with a
great deal of toil, tears and sweat. Malaysians (the
majority of whom are Muslims) work very hard. In 1994,
the average Malaysian worked 2,288 hours:
By comparison the Israelis worked 1,940 hours;
* the hard-working Swiss (who are said to
have the Calvinist work ethics) worked 1,879 hours; and
* the smart-working Germans (the paragons of the
Protestant ethics), worked 1,704 hours.
22. Malaysian even worked harder than the Japanese.
Only Chileans and Koreans work longer hours.
23. After more than a generation of sizzling growth
rates, there are now many Asiaskeptics, especially in the
developed world, who have been predicting the end of our
growth run.
24. In the early Nineties of course, we saw how Japan
stumbled.
25. We then saw a whole range of theories as to why East
Asia could not keep on running.
26. Paul Krugman argued that our growth was the result
of incredible inputs of capital and labour, without any
substantial growth in what the growth accountants call
total factor productivity. According to this thesis, we
are now bound to slow down because these superhuman
investments of capital and labour cannot be sustained.
We would run out of both capital and labour. It never
occurred to professor Krugman and those who so merrily
cheer him on that if indeed we were able in the past to
achieve all that we achieved with no assistance whatever
from productivity growth, imagine what we would be able
to achieve in the future once we add the hand of
productivity to our cause - provided, of course, that
East Asians are not deliberately barred from productivity
improvements. The fact of course is that Mr. Krugman had
the right theory and the wrong facts - because a long
string of experts (who, unlike Krugman, worked out their
own sums) have now published their own calculations,
which in fact argue that East Asia's past ability to
mobilise investments of labour and capital has in fact
lead to their productivity growth.
27. Others have argued that East Asia cannot continue to
run because of energy constraints, because of
environmental limitations, because of food pressures,
because the markets in the West must dry up, because of
the end of technological leapfrogging as East Asian
technology catches up with the technology of the West,
because we will fight amongst ourselves, because China
will be a threat, because there will be war across the
Straits, because of the rise of income gaps, because of
urban-rural disparities, because of congested cities,
because of contaminated water. Because we will not build
enough infrastructure, or because we will build too
much. Population pressure. Financial constriction.
Stress. Suicide. Even traffic jams. You name it. One
or all of these things will fall on our heads or run
over us and flatten us down to the ground.
28. The Asiaskeptics with huge intellects disagree as to
exactly why we will stumble and fall. But they are
united as to the certainty of our fall. We in East Asia
will stumble and fall. And we will stumble and fall:
* although we have defied all the jeremiahs who have
been predicting our doom for the last half century;
* although our problems of success of today are
infinitely preferable to the problems of failure of the
past; and
* although the dangers of the future pale in
comparison with the dangers which we have recently
successfully, and often so dramatically, confronted and
overcome.
29. I will not dwell on what they think will happen to
West Asia and the Arabs in the future. They are
obviously very satisfied that you are facing some
horrendous problems and they think you will never
surmount them. It is not that we feel absolutely certain
of the future prosperity of East Asia. Disasters can
happen whatever may be planned by Man, whatever they may
do. But the predictions of the great thinkers of the
West sound too much like wishful thinking. There is such
a thing as self-fulfilling prophesy. Our fear is that if
it does not happen, these prophets of doom might try to
make sure it will happen.
30. Arrogance is never justified. It is always
dangerous. Humility is always necessary. It is always a
useful companion in our journey through life. But having
climbed the equivalent of Mount Everest, East Asians
might be excused for thinking that all the other
mountains look like hills, and the hills like sand dunes.
All can be scaled, if, God willing, we hold firmly to the
secrets of the past and adjust rapidly to the demands of
the future.
31. Of course, just like everyone else, we are well
capable of shooting ourselves in the foot or in much more
vital parts of our body. There will be twists and there
will be turns. There will be many downs. We do not lead
charmed lives. We have no magic potions. Except for
those with limited ambitions, the future will always
present much difficulty. When we stop worrying about the
future, that is the time to start worrying.
32. But I regret to inform all those Asia cynics and
sceptics whose declared concern for our welfare often
seem to be even greater than our concern for ourselves
that the chances are pretty good, Insya-Allah that we
will continue to persevere.
33. Asia is set to rise. Let us not forget that the
great cultures and religions of the world all originated
in Asia. Indeed Asians conquered Europe before Europe
ever knew there was a world beyond Europe for them to
conquer and colonise. What Asia could do once Asia can
do again -- not to conquer militarily, not to colonise
but to achieve economic power which can balance those of
Europe and America. Asia should not strive to dominate
the world. It should strive to balance the dominance of
the West so that we will create a more equitable world, a
Commonwealth of the world where the wealth is truly
common, not possessed only by a privileged few.
34. There is much profit still in the rich, mature and
old world of Europe and North America. But it would be a
mistake to look only in that direction, to seek wealth
and know-how only from there. Look East. Malaysia
looked East without stopping to look West; and we have
benefited immensely. The people of West Asia will lose
nothing by looking East. Indeed you can gain and gain a
lot.
35. This year, seven of the fastest growing economies in
the world will be in East Asia. This should be no
surprise. This would have had to be said for almost
every year over the last generation. By the time we
enter the 21st century, Asia will almost certainly be the
largest regional economy in the world, bigger than
Western Europe, bigger than North America. There will be
more Asians with a European standard of living than
Europeans with a European standard of living. There will
be more Asians with an American standard of living than
Americans with an American standard of living.
Admittedly, there will continue to be large numbers of
very poor people. But Asia has more than 3 billion
people compared to Europe's 350 million and North
America's 300 million. Even if the percentage of rich
people is small it is going to be bigger than the
absolute numbers in Europe or America.
36. The rise of Asia has begun in all earnestness. But
the interest of Asia lies not in the Age of Asia or in
the so-called Asian Century. Asia should not seek
arrogance, dominance or hegemony.
37. Our struggle for the twenty-first century must be in
the building of a single world, a single Global
Commonwealth where peace will be common and shared, where
prosperity is common and shared, where we find comfort
and solace not in the things that divide and
differentiate us but in our common and shared humanity.
38. There are some who tout the clash of civilisations,
who even conjure the bogey of a Confucianist-Islamic
alliance. Some say that what we must seek is a peaceful
co-existence of civilisations. Why not ensure instead a
celebration of civilisations; a feast of civilisations,
where we not only tolerate each other, where we not only
tolerate our differences -- but where we celebrate our
differences and we feast on the best that each
civilisation and culture has to offer.
39. Many will say that the single Global Commonwealth is
utopian. After all we know there is at least one
Commonwealth where the wealth is far from being common.
But a strong Asia playing a responsible role can bring
about a mind-shift and gradually nurture a true Global
Commonwealth of more equitably shared wealth.
40. In `The Wealth of Nations' written in the year the
United States declared its independence, Adam Smith
stressed one single force, the `invisible hand' -- which
he identified as the productive individual self interest
-- which works its magic to produce the common good:
prosperity within a country. But there could
additionally be the `invisible shoulder', the idea that
our prosperity can be ensured by applying the `invisible
shoulder' to create prosperity for others. This is not
altruism. It is really enlightened self-interest.
41. For many centuries we have been seeing nations,
powerful nations enriching themselves by impoverishing
others. They talk of zero sums in which one nation's
gain can only be achieved at the expense and loss of
other nations. Beggar your neighbour was and is their
philosophy. In the days of colonialism they extracted
the resources of the colonised to take back to the
metropolitan countries. After colonialism became no
longer respectable they changed the terms of trade so
that the former colonies, the newly independent nations,
had to sell more and more of their primary produce in
order to buy less and less of the manufactured goods
produced by the developed nation.
42. Now the poor countries are even being told not to
exploit their resources because they are jeopardising the
climate of the world and the quality of the environment
for the rich. They may not pay low wages as this will
result in the workers of developed countries losing their
jobs. The developing countries must never use their
competitive advantages.
43. But in the East it has been shown that when rich
countries invest in poor countries, creating jobs and
wealth through exports, the investing countries not only
profit from their enterprises but they create markets in
the formerly poor nations for their goods and services. As
a result the rich investing countries and the recipients
of the investments both prosper. In other words by
applying the invisible shoulder to achieve prosperity for
others, you can actually prosper yourself. It is a case
of prosper thy neighbour and not beggar thy neighbour.
Instead of zero sums, we obtain positive numbers instead.
44. Individually we should all be productive using the
force of Adam Smiths invisible hand. But even as the
invisible hand works to produce the common good,
prosperity within a country, why should we not apply the
`invisible shoulder' of the wealthy nations to produce
the common prosperity of all nations. That way we can
achieve the Commonwealth of the world. Idealistic
perhaps. What has happened to the League of Nations and
the United Nations is not encouraging. But must we
abandon hope and ideals altogether because they failed.
The prosper thy neighbour philosophy does not involve any
sacrifice by anyone. Everyone stands to gain from a
world of shared prosperity. It is a win-win formula or
philosophy.
45. East Asia is almost uniformly prosperous because, by
accident or by design, prosper thy neighbour has become
its philosophy. But why should East Asia not share its
enriching philosophy and practice with the rest of the
world, in particular with West Asia. Surely by sharing
East Asia will be richer even as West Asia become richer
than it already is. Then and then only will the Asian
Renaissance be complete.
46. Europe may have approached the end of the first
millennium in fear and trepidation, believing that
doomsday was approaching. No one really knows when
doomsday will come. Only Allah knows. It may come when
we least expect it. But for Muslims in particular we are
enjoined to seek a balance between the worldly and the
hereafter. For as long as we prepare ourselves for the
hereafter there is really no reason why we should not
seek a better life in this world. Helping in the
creation of wealth for all will give us a better life for
ourselves and for others. It is charity without cost.
We will create a better world in the 21st Century, God
willing. And it will all be in keeping with the
injunction of our religion.
47. I wish you all a successful Conference. May your
meeting contribute towards a better world for us in Asia
and for the world.
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