Oleh : DATO SERI DR MAHATHIR BIN MOHAMAD
Tempat : CAMBRIDGE UNIVERSITY LONDON,
UNITE KINGDOM
Tarikh : 07-10-2000
Tajuk : THE CONFERENCE ORGANISED BY
CAMBRIDGE UNIVERSITY MALAYSIA
SOCIETY (CUMAS)
Penyampai : PM
" MALAYSIA IN THE NEW MILLENNIUM "
Firstly I would like to thank the organisers, the
Cambridge University Malaysia Society (CUMAS), for
inviting me to this conference on "Malaysia in the New
Millennium". I hope that some of the glory of this centre
of learning will rub off on me, as I could never aspire to
be a graduate of Cambridge with the coveted B.A. Cantab.
2. I do not know whether I can set much light on what
Malaysia would be like in this new millennium. I am not
so presumptive as to think that I can predict anything
over such a long period; 1000 years to be precise. But I
will try to draw several possible scenarios of Malaysia in
the next few decades which can emerge based on what is
happening now in our country and in the world.
3. All things being equal a country's development is
dependent on the quality of its people. That is why some
countries and some people do well while others despite
their rich resources fail.
4. As a developing country Malaysia has done quite well.
Actually it shouldn't. We are not particularly rich in
resources and we have a multiracial population divided and
divided again by our differences in language, culture and
religion. It is a perfect mixture for racial
confrontation and violence, for political instability and
stunted economic growth.
5. But Allah be praised, race relations in the country
for the past 30 years have been quite good. Not perfect
of course, but good enough for the stability and
development of the country. It has therefore been
possible for the country to be stable and to develop
strongly.
6. I will not be apologetic or unduly modest, but I
believe that in Malaysia the politicians set the tone in
terms of race relations. When Tunku Abdul Rahman decided
that UMNO should downplay its antagonism towards the
Chinese over the Malayan Union affair, and should instead
work together to contest the crucial 1955 election, he
initiated a unique kind of inter-racial cooperation that
has continued to this day. The Barisan Nasional
politicians are likely to continue with this cooperation
and will try to ensure stability and prosperity in the
years to come if the people keep them in power.
7. What is so unique about the Tunku's formula? Dato'
Onn, the first President of UMNO, had wanted to open UMNO
to non-Malays and make it a multiracial party. The Tunku
sensed that neither the Malays nor the other races were
ready to ignore their ethnic and cultural origins and
accept the leadership of anyone not from their own race.
And so he proposed a coalition in which race-based parties
could come together to struggle for common causes. This
way the bigger race or party would not be able to dominate
absolutely. The identity of the minority race or party
would not be lost. And if the minority felt that their
interests were not being attended to, they could raise the
issues in a council where they have the same number of
representatives. They felt safer and so they can
accommodate the views of other parties and races without
fear of losing much of their racial identity and interest.
And they could accept the leadership of someone from
another race because he is only the first among equals.
8. On the ground the undertaking to help each other
during elections meant that the minority race in a given
constituency would be able to tilt in favour of the
coalition candidate from a component party and race
because in a constituency where the minority race now
forms the majority, its candidate could expect support
from the other coalition members. It was a neat
arrangement and it worked well until the opposition got
wise to it and set up their own coalition and supported
each other's candidate in the same way.
9. I will not elaborate more on this but suffice to say
that the continued functioning of the coalition depended
on the coalition Government promoting the interests of all
the races more evenly. It would not do for the coalition
Government to neglect any of the races because this would
result in a breakdown in the coalition party. Failure of
the races and parties to support each other would result
in the coalition losing the election.
10. This principle of sharing is reflected in the
management of the economic and social affairs as well.
When dealing with race relations the coalition Government
never fails to consider the views of all races rather than
the majority race only as would happen in a multi-racial
party where one race dominates. The Robin Hood approach
of robbing the rich to give to the poor is rejected by the
coalition. Instead it tends to nurture the rich so they
will contribute to the welfare of the poor through fair
taxes. In fact we sometimes reduce taxes if we think that
by doing so we can persuade the goose that laid the golden
eggs to lay more and bigger eggs. And it worked. In
Malaysia today the Chinese are richer than they were
before, but the Malays also get a reasonable share of the
wealth.
11. This is the way Malaysia deals with its multi-ethnic
citizens. Of course some will complain and insist that
they are getting less than their due. But the majority
are quite satisfied and keep on returning the Barisan
Nasional coalition to power at every election.
12. Having dealt with equitable sharing and achieved
political stability Malaysia and the Malaysian people are
able to press on with developing the country. I think we
have done quite well there too. No extreme or radical
approaches or policies were adopted. We could have
nationalised everything, but we did not. We could have
allowed for rampant capitalism but we did not. Instead we
tried an odd-mixture of state enterprises and free
marketeering. When state enterprises failed we easily
privatised them. There was no ideological baggage to
hamper us.
13. Despite accusations that the Malaysian Government had
indulged in wasteful projects to satisfy the Prime
Minister's monumental ego, the fact is that we had managed
our finances rather well. That is why when our Ringgit
was devalued we were still able to carry on. We had no
foreign debts to pay. Indeed when Malaysia was down-rated
by International Rating Agencies to prevent us from
borrowing money, we simply used the vast amount of savings
that we had in the country. Malaysia has perhaps the
highest savings rate in the world -- amounting to 38 per
cent of the GNP.
14. If we had mismanaged the country's finances we would
not be able to recover so quickly from the turmoil even if
we impose exchange rate and capital flow controls.
15. Under the New Economic Policy we had restructured the
economy so as to give a fair share to everyone without
having to sacrifice growth. Between 1987-1996 we actually
grew by eight per cent plus every year, an achievement
that few can equal.
16. And so when disaster struck in 1997 and our currency
was devalued we did not have to rush for foreign help.
17. The accusation that the turmoil was caused by the
Government being corrupt and practised cronyism etc did
not hold water. If we were it could not have been only in
1997. We must have been corrupt etc for a long time. Yet
our economy grew at a high rate and our development was
rapid for years and years. It was not corruption etc, but
it was due to the currency traders selling down our
Ringgit in order to make money for themselves. When we
condemned the currency traders for their greed, we were
roundly castigated by the whole world.
18. To cut a long story short, today the world admits
that we were right about the rogue traders and we were
right too in handling the crisis by imposing exchange rate
control and regulating short-term capital flows. Now our
economy is back on track and growing much faster than the
countries supposedly helped by the IMF and other
international agencies.
19. I have spoken at length on what we have been doing in
our country and how it has performed in the political,
economic and social fields. But I am here to talk on
"Malaysia in the New Millennium", on the future. The fact
is that in order to forecast the future we have to look
into the past. Not only will the past influence the
future but what happens in the past will help indicate the
possible trend of events in the future.
20. As a result of what we have done so far, Malaysia is
a politically stable, relatively harmonious country where
economic growth has been quite fast. We have developed a
set of ethics and policies which have served us well. We
have a vision -- Vision 2020. We want to be a fully
developed country by the year 2020, developed in our own
mould, not a fair copy of the developed countries of
today.
21. Given all this it is fair to expect that at least in
the first few decades of the millennium, Malaysia would
continue to remain peaceful and stable, that it would
continue to grow economically, that it would be able to
apply I.T. in order to maximise the benefits to be
derived, that it would remain fiercely independent and
outspoken.
22. Malaysia will remain democratic but will not become a
liberal democracy where anything done in the name of
democracy will be accepted unquestioningly. Malaysia is
more interested in the results. Democracy is meant to
serve us not we to serve democracy. We would be condemned
of course but we won't care because we will continue to
know what is good for us. We would continue to believe
that the West does not have a monopoly of wisdom.
23. As a result of the continuation of the present
policy, Malaysia is likely to achieve Vision 2020 and to
remain a free and independent nation which would take its
proper place in the world community. Its voice will be
heard. It would still not get a good image in the West
and with the Western media. The developed countries will
continue to say that Malaysia is undemocratic, that the
Government is not transparent, that it interferes with the
judiciary etc. But despite all these baseless criticisms
the country would still remain stable, would still grow
and become an even bigger trading nation.
24. But supposing Malaysia decides to take an about turn,
to dump the ruling party and the policies that we had
followed which had served us so well; supposing the
campaign of hate against the Government and its leaders
succeeds, and the Malays decide that they want a change
and so voted the so-called Islamic Party into power, what
then would the future hold for Malaysia?
25. Many Malays believe that there is really no
difference between PAS and UMNO. Many declare that
whereas UMNO has no choice but to depend on the Malays,
the Malays are not so constrained. They have a choice
between UMNO and PAS. If they choose PAS nothing bad
would really happen to them. In fact PAS is likely to be
more Islamic and this would fit will with the religious
aspirations of the Malay Muslims.
26. As they see it they have nothing to lose. I don't
agree with them. But more importantly will the country
lose? Will the other races lose? So far PAS has ruled
Kelantan and Terengganu. Is there anything wrong with
these states which indicate that the party will mess up
the whole country?
27. PAS claims and many Malays believe that anything that
UMNO had done for the Malays and the country any
Government could do. PAS as the Central Government of
Malaysia would be able to protect Malay special privileges
and carry out the same affirmative action by giving the
Malays special preference for scholarships, business
licences and opportunities, preserve Malay reserves etc.
28. It is possible that PAS can do all these but special
privileges are of little use if you have no idea how to
make use of them. UMNO had devised many strategies to
take advantage of the special privileges in order to
enhance the position of the Malays. It was UMNO which
came up with the New Economic Policy (NEP), a policy to
restructure the economy so as to give the Malays and other
Bumiputeras a fair share of the economic cake. Where
others would have played Robin Hood and expropriated the
wealth of the Chinese in order to distribute to the
Malays, UMNO decided that the enhancing of the wealth of
the Malays must come through enlarging the economic cake
and distributing the enlarged portion more to the Malays
while apportioning some also to the Chinese and Indians.
29. The UMNO-led Government came up with the Permodalan
Nasional Berhad (National Equity Corporation) to take up
the shares apportioned to the Malays so that they would
not be sold back to the Chinese and so cause the NEP to
fail. Numerous other solutions have been put up by the
UMNO-dominated Government which were designed to promote
the Malays without discriminating too much against the non-
Malays.
30. Growth with equity was invented and developed by
UMNO. Would PAS have come up with this approach and
implemented it?
31. How would PAS have handled the economic crisis
recently? The leaders of PAS had advocated going to the
IMF and we all know what happened to countries which went
to the IMF.
32. How would PAS handle race relations if it is in
power? PAS had initially condemned UMNO for working with
non-Malays. According to PAS, Muslims working with non-
Muslims will become apostates. But now of course PAS is
willing to work with DAP. It has always been ready to
trot out religious arguments for whatever it does. Would
a PAS Government break its promise and try to grab
everything in the furtherance of its idea of an Islamic
state? Or would it really work with the DAP and the
others? PAS records of making and breaking promises are
not reassuring.
33. If I may hazard a guess, Malaysia under PAS rule is
not going to be politically stable and will not develop.
Malaysia will probably retrogress. Its domestic policies
and its relations with other countries would not work.
Despite claiming that any Government can do what the
Barisan Nasional Government has done, it cannot even
supply water to Kelantan. Although the developed
countries are against the present Barisan Nasional
Government and would like to see a change of Government in
Malaysia, I suspect that they are not going to like a PAS
Government anymore than they do the present Government.
They will continue to be busy trying to undermine this so-
called Muslim Government.
34. What about the other races in Malaysia? Will they be
better off? Will they be given fair treatment and
consideration by PAS Government? I don't think so. PAS
has made promises to the Malay electorate to set up what
they described as an Islamic Government which will
implement PAS's own interpretations of Islamic laws. PAS
rejects the present laws as un-Islamic. Will PAS do away
with the present laws? If it does not then it will stand
accused of not honouring a promise. If it does then the
non-Muslims may not like it. This may destabilise the
country.
35. Presently PAS interpretation of an Islamic country is
one where the Hudud Laws and executions of apostates are
carried out. By this interpretation there are no Islamic
countries in the world, because there is really no Islamic
country which implements these laws. What will happen to
the country when PAS tries to make good its promises?
36. Frankly I don't think PAS is going to win enough
seats to set up a PAS Government in the near future. But
it can weaken the UMNO-led Government. What would happen
in Malaysia if the Government is weak and the UMNO
leadership is ineffective? All along the Barisan Nasional
had asked the electorate to return a strong Government,
one with a two-thirds majority.
37. In other countries the electorate usually give a
simple majority. A Government with a simple majority is
forever under threat. Defection by a member or two could
bring the Government down. Instead of governing and
developing the country the Government would always be
looking back to ensure that its members continue to give
support. Intraparty politics would be the priority not
governing and developing the country.
38. Such a Government cannot function properly.
Governments must do unpopular things. New taxes have to
be introduced and old taxes collected. Disruptive
activities have to be curbed. In a multiracial country
like Malaysia, it is difficult to avoid displeasing one
race or another at any one time. With a weak Government
minor issues can take on serious proportion. The country
and the people must suffer because of this.
39. If PAS through its campaign of hate, and DAP with its
racialism were to undermine the Barisan Nasional
Government and cause the Barisan Nasional's majority to be
greatly reduced, then Malaysia would have such an
ineffective Government that it will be unstable and
incapable of progressing economically.
40. Let us look at the building of Penang Bridge for
example. When it was being built there were accusations
that the Government was wasting money. With a small
majority the Government might have abandoned the project
for fear of defection by a few of its Parliamentary
members and the consequent fall of the Government. The
result would be no Penang Bridge today. Can we imagine
what it would be like to have no Penang Bridge today. Can
we imagine what the cost would be if we have to build the
Penang Bridge now. But because the Government had such a
big majority it was able to ignore the criticisms and
build the bridge.
41. The same can be said of the National Car project. We
would be happily assembling foreign cars and have no
knowledge about automobiles, engineering and the
production of cars.
42. With a small majority it is likely that there would
be no industrialisation of Malaysia, no NEP, no equitable
distributions of wealth and opportunities. A weak
Government for Malaysia would just be unable to develop
the country. Probably the Malays, Chinese and Indians
would be at each other's throats. There would be mass
emigrations.
43. But the people of Malaysia had always given a big
majority to the party which formed the Government. And so
unpopular decisions could be made and Malaysia is able to
go ahead with seemingly wasteful projects which in the end
prove to be wise undertakings.
44. Is it democratic to have the same party returned time
and time again? Some say it is not democratic. They say
a democratic country must see frequent changes of
Government. Will the future see such changes? It is
possible of course. Many are already saying that we need
a change, we need a new Government merely for the sake of
change. That the present Government performs well is no
reason for not changing.
45. Assuming that a new party is elected to form the
Government, it must change most of the plans and policies
of the previous Government. Perhaps the changes would be
good for the country. But changes must create
uncertainties and uncertainties are disruptive.
46. The present Malaysian Government is business-
friendly. It encourages the private sector including
foreigners to invest and act as the engine of growth. But
a new Government might not think that being business-
friendly and giving the private sector a major role in the
economy is a good thing. Promises and agreements made by
the present Government will accordingly be dumped. This
will hurt investors, both local and foreign. They will
take their business elsewhere.
47. The growth of the country's economy cannot possibly
go on at the same rate. There will be shrinkage, loss of
jobs, loss of income etc. Jobless people can become
unruly. There will be instability which would affect
investments further.
48. Changing Government may be considered democratic but
it is very disruptive. It affects a country's development
adversely. Again we have to consider whether we want
democracy for its sake or we want democracy for the good
that it can deliver.
49. In 1969 we saw what could happen when we allowed our
emotions to take over from our common sense. Fortunately
we very quickly retreated from the brink and worked out a
formula which has served us well over the past 30 years.
I don't think Malaysians, the majority of them at least,
would want to play around with racialism again. But we
might forget as we take our present stability for granted.
Will another May 13 occur when the Government becomes weak
or a new Government is put in place? I am not trying to
threaten but the possibility is very real.
50. Recently we had the Al-Ma'unah, a deviant Islamic
group which tried to use violence to realise their so-
called Islamic state. The Government acted quickly in
order to protect the people and the country from what was
planned to be religious violence. Members of this group
have been arrested and charged in court under the relevant
laws.
51. The question that arises in everyone's mind is
whether there could be more such incidents, probably
bigger and more difficult to handle. No one can guarantee
that this kind of irrationality would not recur. But it
would certainly recur if people think it was a "sandiwara"
or "stage-play" and do not take it seriously. It would
certainly recur if the campaign of hate promoted by
certain so-called religious groups do not stop.
52. The Al-Ma'unah group was formed because of the
perception and even belief that the Malaysian Government
is un-Islamic and should be hated and overthrown by
whatever means. They were quite ordinary people and must
know the serious nature of their plan and the possible
consequences if they were apprehended. But such was their
hatred that they were prepared to kill, despite knowing
that murder attracts the death sentence.
53. Hate is a powerful emotion. It can move people to do
the unthinkable. Nations use hatred of other nations in
order to get their people to fight and kill and be killed.
In Malaysia today hate is being used extensively by PAS in
order to gain fanatical support for themselves.
Inculcations of hate begin in the kindergarten where
little children were taught to hate the Government and its
leaders. In schools certain teachers, religious and non-
religious, amplify this hatred by spreading all kinds of
lies. In the universities, at home and abroad, more
hatred is sown among the students.
54. By the time these people mature, the feeling of
hatred is so deeply ingrained that it cannot be changed.
It can only get worse. And at this stage acting the way
the Al-Ma'unah Group did is entirely possible.
55. The correct thing to do is for the Government to put
a stop to this hate campaign. But there will be quite a
few who would regard any action taken by the Government as
undemocratic, oppressive, and a denial of the rights of
the citizens. These people will of course gain the
support of human rights and democratic groups outside the
country. After all these outsiders are not going to
suffer in any way if the country goes up in flames. Some
of them would quite enjoy it.
56. Will there be more `Sauk' incidents in Malaysia in
the new millennium? It is up to us to determine. We
dealt very firmly with the Communist uprising. Shall we
wait until a full-scale so-called Muslim uprising take
place before we act or do we act now? If we act now we
may save the future. But of course we will be condemned
by the liberals in the world.
57. These are some of the scenarios which Malaysia may
see and experience in the new millennium. There may be
others of course. It all depends on what we will do in
the future. If we have not learnt from the past, if the
future generations are so anxious to try new things to
change, then any of the given scenarios may become
reality. If we have learnt from the past then it is
likely that we will continue to progress to become a
developed country by 2020.
58. I believe that Malaysians by and large are reasonable
and moderate people. Whether they are Malays or Chinese
or Indians or Ibans or Kadazans or whatever, they would
not want to do anything which may plunge the country into
a state of uncertainty and turmoil and destroy the Vision
that they had planned for.
59. No one can be certain of what the future will bring.
We can hazard a guess. We can make deductions based on an
analysis of what had happened in the past, on the
character and psyche of the people, on the trends and
developments in the world outside. But we can never be
absolute certain.
60. I have tried to give several possible scenarios. To
a certain extent we can influence events so that the best
scenario would materialise.
61. At the moment I am hopeful that Malaysians would make
every effort to bring about the best scenario, that of a
stable, rapidly growing country which will become
developed by the year 2020. The present Government is
dedicated to achieving this Vision. I believe most
Malaysians are similarly dedicated. And so it is quite
likely that Malaysia in the new millennium will be a
developed nation of 30 million plus hard working, peace-
loving people, respected and trusted by the rest of the
world.
62. I am a bad futurologist. I hope that others are
better and will tell you precisely what the new millennium
would bring for Malaysia. I hope you will be able to
discuss and make up your minds as to the roles you would
want to play. I wish you the best of luck.
|
|