Oleh/By		:	DATO' SERI DR. MAHATHIR BIN MOHAMAD 
Tempat/Venue 	: 	TOKYO, JAPAN 
Tarikh/Date 	: 	19/05/95 
Tajuk/Title  	: 	THE INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON 
			"THE FUTURE OF ASIA" 



 THE FUTURE OF ASIA
    I  think  I  am  qualified to speak on the future of my
country, Malaysia.  I am not so sure I can forsee the future
of Asia.
2.   However, having been invited to do so, I will try.
3.   There was a time, not so very long ago, when  all  that
Asian  countries wanted was to Westernise.  By this they did
not mean industrialisation  or  achieving  high  per  capita
income.    They  meant simply having a Europeanised society,
coats and ties and hats for women.  Self-esteem was  at  its
lowest ebb among Asians and Asian nations then.  They looked
down upon themselves as unworthy of preserving.
4.      There  were,  of  course, very good reasons for this
inferiority complex.  Large chunks of Asia were colonised by
the Europeans,  a  few  of  whom  were  sufficient  to  rule
millions.  The  Europeans  had the skills, the knowledge and
the manufacturing  technology.    Asians  only  had  cottage
crafts.    The  Europeans  were  militarily powerful, better
organised and could impose their will.
5.             Asians believed completely that the Europeans
were  super-beings whose way of life  could  be  copied  but
whose achievements could never be equalled.
6.      When Japan took on the Europeans in the Pacific War,
most Asians thought that Japan was being foolhardy.  Japan's
defeat was expected.   And, of  course,  after  that  defeat
Japan was not expected to recover.  Asians would continue to
be subservient to the Europeans.
7.      And  as for the Europeans, they too were of the same
mind.   They were superior  and  they  would  always  remain
superior.  They were so confident that no Asian nation would
be  able  to catch up with them that they could afford to be
charitable.  And so Japan was allowed access to  their  huge
markets, unrestricted.
8.      Too  late  they  realised  that  their  charity  was
misplaced.  Not only did Japan  recover  but  such  backward
countries  as  South Korea and Taiwan also seemed capable of
emulating Japan's economic miracle.
9.      Historically  Europeans  have  had  very  unpleasant
experience  of  Asians.   The Mongols, the Ottoman Turks and
the Arabs had not only conquered or raided  Europe  but  had
ravaged European lands, burning, killing and capturing their
people  for  slaves.    For  centuries they lived in fear of
periodical raids by the Huns i.e.  the Mongol Khans and  the
Turks.    The  Yellow Peril was very real to them.  Although
they may not talk about it so much  now,  the  fear  of  the
Yellow Peril is still very much there.
10.   The recovery of Asian countries and their capacity, in
many cases, to oust the Europeans from the market places  of
the  world, cannot but awaken old fears of the Yellow Peril.
Asians may not like it but European antagonism towards Asian
economic expansion is going to figure a lot in the future of
Asia.
11.                For the moment Asia  is  not  progressing
uniformly.    Much  of  the progress is taking place in East
Asia i.e. North East Asia and South East Asia.  But  already
it is becoming clear that Asian countries are quick to learn
from  the experience of other Asian countries.  They may not
feel up to emulating Western  countries  but  they  seem  to
believe  that  what  one  Asian  country can do, other Asian
countries can also do.
12.    Beginning  with  South  Korea  and  Taiwan's  bid  to
replicate  Japan, the process has spread to the countries of
South East Asia.  The effect of South East  Asian  countries
succeeding  in  industrialising  is even more profound.   If
largely brown South East Asians can do  it,  then  everybody
should  be  able  to do it.   Development and progress is no
longer a mystery.  And so China, the Indo-Chinese countries,
Burma, the South Asian countries, have all begun the process
of  industrial  development.    Even  the  newly-independent
Central  Asian  Republics have shown interest and are avidly
following the  progress  of  East  Asia,  to  find  out  how
backward countries can rehabilitate themselves and develop.
13.    In  the  meantime  the East Asians are making so much
progress that trade between them now make up 40  percent  of
their total trade.  Clearly they are still at the beginning.
The potential is tremendous.
14.   Presently China's GDP in Purchasing Power Parity (PPP)
terms is $2,855 billion while the per capita  GNP  is  $435.
By  comparison  Malaysia's GNP per capita is $3,500.  Surely
the Chinese are capable of catching up with Malaysia.   When
it  does, China's GDP should be around $23,000 billion.  The
U.S. GDP is presently $6,387 billion.    Even  if  the  U.S.
moves ahead at three percent annual growth, it will not stay
ahead of China for long.
15.  In fact the World Bank calculated that by the year 2020
China  will be the world's largest economy, fully 40 percent
bigger than the second biggest economy, the United States of
America.   The  same  analysis  concluded  that  assuming  a
surprise- free scenario, in PPP terms six of the ten biggest
economies  in  the  world  by the year 2020 will be in Asia.
Other than China, Japan will be number three,  India  number
four, fifth Indonesia, seventh South Korea, Thailand will be
the eighth while Taiwan will be the tenth.
16.    Of course such predictions cannot be accurate.  There
will be so many variables  which  will  change  the  picture
radically.    But unless there is a major war either between
the Asian nations themselves or between Asia  and  non-Asian
nations, the chances are good that these countries are going
to make it big.
17.    The  factor  that contributed most to this hyperbolic
scenario is  the  demise  of  the  Communist  and  Socialist
economic  theories.   The assumption that equality must mean
justice sounds logical and ideal.  Indeed in many  instances
equality  does  result  in  justice, as for example equality
before the law.  But equality of wealth between  members  of
society  does  not  result  in justice or even fairness.  It
actually  results  in  everyone   becoming   poor   and   it
impoverishes  the  whole  nation.    It took the Russians 70
years to learn this simple fact.
18.   Once Communism and Socialism  were  rejected,  private
enterprise   becomes  possible.     Admittedly  many  former
communists still feel private profits are sinful.  But  they
will  no  doubt  learn and over time they will accept profit
motive as not only normal but actually helps to  create  and
spread wealth.
19.    Politically  the  change  will be more guarded.   The
Communist will probably take a much longer time  to  discard
authoritarian  rule  in favour of democracy.  This in itself
is not bad.  Nothing is more unsettling than people held  in
bondage  for  decades  to  suddenly  become completely free.
Freedom goes to the  head  easily  and  quickly  and  before
anyone realises it, anarchy sets in.
20.    The rapid adoption of democracy in a number of former
Communist  countries  has     only  increased   crimes   and
corruption.   Governments have become weak and less durable.
Unfamiliar with the rule of law, they find themselves unable
to enforce it the way liberals are supposed to  enforce  the
law.
21.  They are hardly to be blamed.  Even the old democracies
are  not quite capable of handling democracy.  The rights of
the citizen are so honoured that they can form armed militia
with the expressed intention of over-throwing the Government
by violence.  Since all they have done is to  wear  uniforms
and  carry  arms, including machine guns, in countries where
there is no dress code and everyone has  a  right  to  carry
arms,  they cannot be considered as breaching the law.  They
have to actually use their arms against the object of  their
hate before any action can be taken against them.  Even then
the  punishment  is likely to be mild.  A life for a life is
considered as barbaric.   For  killing  children  and  other
innocent  people they will be given a life sentence and then
pardoned for good behaviour after serving 10 years.
22.  Democracies are only beginning to learn that  too  much
freedom  is  dangerous.    But  they are not yet ready to do
anything about it.
23.  Life has become unsafe in many democracies.  And wealth
has not always brought happiness.  Even the massive  welfare
handouts have not done much good.  There are many abuses and
there is corruption everywhere, in the Government and in the
business sector.  Morals have decayed.
24.    Aware  of  this,  is  it  any  wonder that the former
Communist  countries  in  Asia  are   not   convinced   that
democracy, at least the Western variety, is the best system?
They are not yet willing to discard their authoritarian rule
for democracy as much as they are ready to accept the market
economy as a solution to their economic problem.
25.          Still increasing wealth through the free market
economic  system  must  result  in  the  citizens  of former
Communist countries demanding more freedom.    But  although
there  will  be more freedom there is little likelihood that
Asian  countries of the future will adopt the Western  style
of unlimited freedom.
26.    Already  those  Asian  countries  which  have adopted
Western ideas about democracy wholesale are  finding  ruling
their  country  rather  difficult.    Disruptive strikes and
riots undermine the economy and make life difficult for  the
citizens.  Abolition of religious instructions in Government
schools,  while  allowing  absolute  freedom of beliefs, has
resulted in  a  loss  of  direction  and  the  emergence  of
numerous  cults,  some of which are violent.  Asians are now
seeing Buddhist cults which  can  be  equally  violent.    A
democratic  Government  is  not supposed to interfere unless
and until lives and property are lost.
27.   Liberal  democracy  may  be  good  for  the  religious
deviationists  and  cultists.   The innocent victims may not
think so.  They have a right to their lives too.
28.   The  right  to  strike  is  regarded  as  one  of  the
fundamental  rights of the workers in democracies.  But what
is the basic premise of a strike?  It is nothing more than a
trial of strength between employers and employees,  a  trial
to  see  who can withstand the most amount of damage.  It is
like asking two men in a quarrel to fight each  other  until
one  gives  up  from  the  pain  inflicted.    Is this how a
civilised world settles conflicts?  If there is  a  dispute,
then go to war.
29.    One  would have thought that conflicts in this modern
age should be settled by negotiations, by arbitration or  by
courts  of  law.    But Western democracy advocates tests of
strength as a means to settle disputes.  They actively  urge
this.      They   even  try  to  subvert  the  workforce  of
newly-emerging countries in the  name  of  workers'  rights.
They  know  full  well  that  the  liberal exercise of these
rights will  retard  the  development  of  these  struggling
countries.  But that is not about to deter them from forcing
these  rights on the workers of these countries.  Of course,
they are aware that industrial  unrest  in  these  countries
will  only  benefit  the workers in the developed countries.
Don't anyone dare to suggest that  they  may  have  ulterior
motives!  They merely want to protect workers of the world.
30.   Asian countries must be forgiven if they still suspect
ulterior motives.  They are not convinced that  the  Western
form  of  democracy  is  the  ultimate  and the best form of
democracy.   And so they have  begun  to  define  their  own
interpretation of democracy.
31.    Freedom,  yes,  but  responsibility  also.    If  two
centuries ago Americans insisted that there  should  be  `no
taxation  without  representation',  Asians of today believe
there should be no freedom without responsibility.
32.  For Asians, the community, the  majority  comes  first.
The  individual  and the minority must have their rights but
not at the  unreasonable  expense  of  the  majority.    The
individuals  and  the  minority must conform to the mores of
society.  A little deviation may be allowed but unrestrained
exhibition of personal freedom which disturbs the  peace  or
threatens  to  undermine  society  is not what Asians expect
from democracy.
33.  Democracy is a method of Government.  It is  good  only
if  the  result  is good. Here I am reminded of a television
report on  the  Israelis  killing  Palestinian  refugees  in
Lebanon almost 10 years ago.  The American guest commentator
expressed  his  horror at such killings.  But he ended up by
saying that the U.S. must support Israel because it was  the
only  democratic  country in the region.  Apparently you can
kill in the name of democracy.
34.   Malaysia must  admit  without  any  apology  that  its
democracy  is  not  of  the Western variety.   When a Muslim
religious group began to deviate from the true teachings  of
Islam  the  leaders were detained.  They had to defend their
beliefs to people well- versed in Islam.    They  failed  to
convince  the  learned Muslim scholars of the basis of their
teachings.  Finally they were themselves convinced that they
had deviated and were persuaded to return to the true faith.
35.  The action to bring back these deviationists was  taken
fairly  early.    Had  they been allowed to go on until they
stage some form of violent attacks on the people,  it  would
have  been  too  late.    Of course, now that they have been
pacified, many felt that the action of  the  Government  was
undemocratic.    But  Malaysia  believes it is democratic to
anticipate violence and protect the people.
36.  Whether the West admits it or not, David Koresh and the
Jones  cult  were  the  products  of  the  Western  form  of
democracy.   So also is the recent bombing in Oklahoma.  The
Michigan Militia Corp has as yet done no real harm.  But you
can bet that sooner or later they will be using  those  guns
which they democratically own.
37.    Oppression  by  democrats  is  no  less  painful than
oppression by dictators.  Both should be  condemned.    Asia
cannot  accept Western mores wholesale.  Asia should instead
pick  and  chose  which  aspects  of  democracy  it   wants.
Uniformity should not be a feature of Asian democracy.  Each
country  should  be allowed to tailor its democracy to cater
to the characteristics of its people and their needs.    The
people  should  decide  through the basic democratic process
what kind and what degree of democracy they want.
38.  The same applies to human rights.   Asian human  rights
need  not  be  a  fair  copy  of Western human rights.   The
individual and the minority must be  allowed  their  freedom
but  such  freedom  must  not  deprive the majority of their
rights.
39.             So far some Asian countries have refused  to
bow  to  Western  pressures  on  democracy and human rights.
Some, of  course,  still  equate  modernisation  with  total
Westernisation,  total  acceptance of all the norms and even
the idiosyncracies of the West.  But the likelihood is  that
Asian  countries  of  the  future  will  be  democratic  but
different, not only in relation to  the  West  but  even  in
relation  to  each  other.    Hopefully,  they will learn to
tolerate the differences and not feel guilty about not being
uniformly democratic.
40.  Apart from being more  democratic  and  subscribing  to
their  own  perceptions  as to what constitute human rights;
apart from accepting the free market economy there can be no
certainty about the future of Asia.   Several scenarios  are
possible.  Based upon Asian history and the present state of
Asian countries, all these scenarios are possible.
41.    First,  taking  the  worst  possible  scenario, Asian
countries would go to war against each other.  It may  start
with  disputes  over  the Spratlys.   China insists that the
South China Sea belongs to China along with all the islands,
reefs and the minerals in the sea.  To emphasise its claims,
China builds a series of  shelters  for  Chinese  fishermen.
They look suspiciously like military installations.
42.     The  ASEAN  countries  which  by  then  include  the
Indo-Chinese state become agitated.   Unable to  take  on  a
China  that  has  become  the  most  powerful economy in the
world, ASEAN looked to Japan.   Japan maintains  a  strictly
neutral stand.  The Chinese market is too valuable.
43.  The United States offers to help and is welcomed by the
ASEAN  states.   The Pacific Fleet began to patrol the South
China Sea.  Clashes occur between the Chinese Navy  and  the
United  States  Navy.    The United Nations says it is in no
position to intervene  but  appeals  for  the  countries  to
settle  their  dispute through negotiation.  All ignored the
United Nations.  44.              China declares war on  the
United  States  and  a full scale war breaks out.  A nuclear
bomb is dropped on Beijing, a clean bomb which  killed  only
about 10 million people.  China retaliated by firing nuclear
missiles  at  the west coast of America.  By an accident one
warhead fell near Tokyo.
45.  I will leave the rest to your imagination.  This is one
scenario of the future of Asia.
46.   Another scenario is  where  all  the  Asian  countries
accept  the  status  quo.    They  may  grow  but must never
overtake the West.   Asian countries may not  talk  to  each
other  on any issue or act in concert on anything.  They are
all members of the United States-led APEC.
47.  World trade will be managed by the European Union  (EU)
and  NAFTA,  which  by then would have come together to form
the world's biggest trading bloc.  This is  presently  being
urged by a senior member of the EU and it is not unthinkable
that  this  would  happen.    With  their trading clout, the
EU-NAFTA confederation could dictate terms to  the  rest  of
the world.
48.    The  World  Trade  Organisation (WTO) would be placed
under the EU-NAFTA and through the WTO, world trade will  be
managed  so  that  all  the countries of the world would get
what is determined as their fair share of the trade.   China
would  still  be  big  but  not as big as the United States.
China's trade with the EU-NAFTA will be fully regulated.
49.  All markets will be opened to  everybody.    The  small
banks in developing economies like Malaysia for example will
have  the  right  to  set  up  branches  in  the villages of
Euromerica.    Reciprocally,  American  banks  can  set   up
branches in Malaysian villages. Mergers take place daily and
eventually there will be only a few mega banks controlled by
the developed economies.
50.                 Some Asian countries revert to producing
commodities while  others  prosper  on  the  tourist  trade,
catering  for travellers from rich countries.  Manufacturing
is best done by those countries  with  the  technology,  the
capital, the marketing network and the know-how.
51.    There will be no risk of war as countries will not be
allowed to arm beyond what is  required  to  keep  the  arms
trade  profitable.  There will be occasional massacres as in
Rwanda.  A few hundred thousand people will be killed.    As
this  is  not  war,  the United Nations will not do anything
beyond regretting.  So much for the second scenario.
52.  Can there be a third scenario in the  future  of  Asia?
Yes there can be and, indeed, the third scenario is the most
likely scenario.
53.    In  this scenario the countries of Asia all adopt the
free market system while developing their  own  versions  of
democracy.   There will be no hurry about political reforms.
They  see  the  chaos  and  the  violence  in  the   Western
democracies and they attribute this to democratic extremism.
Too much of a good thing is bad, even if the thing is called
democracy.      They   therefore   prefer  to  be  cautious,
democratising only slowly and rejecting  certain  disruptive
practices  of  Western  democracy.    As  a result the Asian
countries remain largely stable and are able to develop at a
fast pace.
54.  With the universal adoption of the free market  system,
there will be a huge crossflow of capital and know-how.  The
economies  expand  at  high  rates, far higher than those of
Western countries.
55.  The less developed Asian countries will be  helped  out
through  investments  and  know-how by other developed Asian
countries.  As other Asian countries prosper they invest  in
each  other's  country, and indeed in Africa, Europe and the
Americas, generally  boosting  the  world's  economy.    56.
The  Asian  countries  become  so  rich that the rest of the
world  depend  on  the  Asian  market.    Asia  becomes  the
locomotive of growth for the rest of the world.
57.   The initial attempt to obstruct the economic growth of
Asian  states  was  overcome  through  the  Asian  countries
consenting  to talk to each other and to act against managed
trade as proposed by some non-Asian countries.   Seeing  the
possibility of losing the rich Asian market if they persist,
the  non-Asian countries stopped obstructing.  Agreement was
reached through the WTO that world trade should be free  and
there  should  be  no social clauses attached to it.  In any
case it was becoming clear that prosperity had led to better
pay and working conditions for Asian workers, more democracy
and greater respect for human rights.
58.  Under these conditions, the Asian countries  grew  even
faster.    But the rest of the world benefited too as Asians
began to buy more from  them,  invest  in  these  countries,
introduce  better  work  ethics  and,  of  course, boost the
tourist industry through their high spending travels.
59.  All trade blocs were dissolved.  The only trade bloc is
the WTO.  Of course, conditions were not always ideal.   But
differences  were  settled  through  the  WTO, through third
parties  or  through  negotiations.    This  is  the   third
scenario.
60.    What  our future will be can be largely determined by
us.  I am no more able to predict  it  than  the  next  man.
Even  renowned  futurist  have been found to be well off the
mark.  1984 has come and gone and we  have  not  seen  state
control  and Big Brother as described by George Orwell.  But
instead we see  a  lot  of  miracles  which  have  not  been
predicted at all.
61.    But  if  we want something we should work at it.  The
third scenario is idealistic but as I said it is achievable.
It will be a much more equitable world.   Asians should  not
try  to  get  rich  at the expense of the rest of the world.
Asians should be ready to share their wealth.    In  sharing
they will not lose.  Indeed, they will enrich themselves.
62.    In  the late 1960's Japan began to invest in Malaysia
despite conditions for investment not being favourable.
63.  Today Malaysia is one of the more prosperous developing
countries.  It is the 17th biggest importer  in  the  world.
And  a  lot of what it imports comes from Japan.  The wealth
that  the  Japanese  created  in  Malaysia   through   their
investments now returns to Japan.  In addition Malaysia is a
good debtor, paying back cheap Yen loans with costly Yens.
64.    Clearly enriching your trading partners enriches you.
Asians should always remember this.  It does not hurt to buy
even the things you do not want from your  trading  partners
in  order to reduce the trade imbalance, to enrich them.  It
costs much more to defend yourself in subtle trade wars such
as effective and continuous revaluation of your currency.
65.  Asian countries, as they become  rich,  should  not  be
greedy.   They should not form trade blocs.  They should not
keep their wealth within their countries only.  They  should
invest abroad and open their markets to fair competition.
66.    If they do all these then the future for Asia will be
very bright indeed.  And the future of  the  world  will  be
bright too.
67.    We  can have any scenario we want.  The future can be
determined by us, if we want to.  If we don't, then  someone
will  determine  it  for  us.    We can't blame them if that
future favours them.  It is all up to us.