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Oleh/By : DATO' SERI DR. MAHATHIR BIN MOHAMAD
Tempat/Venue : TOKYO, JAPAN
Tarikh/Date : 17/05/96
Tajuk/Title : NIHON KEIZEI CONFERENCE ON "THE
FUTURE OF ASIA"
I have been asked to speak on the subject:
`Toward a Stable Asia'. Before I say some words on
what I think needs to be done to strengthen the
stability of Asia in the years ahead, I think it is
important to get something clear.
2. In my view, Asia has already achieved a
remarkable level of stability. There are many wars
in the world today. There are none in East Asia.
There are few in Asia, where half of mankind live.
3. To be sure, there is no cause for complacency,
no reason for resting on laurels. Asia's present
stability has clear lines of fragility. There are
serious flaws. Some of the foundations consist of
less than steel and concrete. The stability is
often shaky. The strategic situation in Northeast
Asia is more problematic than the strategic
environment in Southeast Asia. It portends some
serious problems which will need to be grappled
with. There is no excuse for `triumphalism', for
trumpeting our accomplishments. We must be humble
and modest, remembering that pride almost always
comes before a fall.
4. At the same time, it has to be recognised that
not for one hundred and fifty years has Asia been so
stable. We have not seen such tranquility for a
century and a half. Today, the guns are almost
stilled, in every nook and corner of East Asia. No
shots are being fired across borders. All this is
not to be easily dismissed because in the last fifty
years we have been by far the most turbulent region
of the world.
5. Almost every country has gone through a civil
war, insurgency or domestic turbulence of the most
devastating and serious kind. Millions upon
millions have died. The greatest wars of the post-
World War II period -- the Korean War and the
Vietnam War -- have been fought in our region of
East Asia.
6. There are no two ways about it: we have
achieved a great deal. We have for the most part
achieved a stable Asia. The task now is to greatly
fortify, to strengthen that stability.
7. To do this, I believe three things are
absolutely critical:
i) We must establish a warm, cooperative and
enduring peace between the nations of our
East Asian village;
ii) We must ensure a community of prosperity
and economic dynamism in our region; and
iii) We must ensure social justice at home, in
all our societies.
8. There are other important things to do, of
course. But I believe these are the three central
challenges that confront us in the decades to come.
9. Let me begin by elaborating on the first
challenge: the challenge of establishing a warm,
cooperative and enduring peace.
10. We have to be sensitive to the fact that peace
is not the mere absence of war. At one end of the
war-peace continuum, there is total war. At the
other end, there is total peace. Fortunately for
mankind, we have never seen total war.
Unfortunately for mankind, we have never achieved
total peace. In between, there is hot and violent
war, cold war, cold peace and warm and cooperative
peace. The practical task for statesmanship always
is to ensure that we do not slip down the slippery
road towards conflict. The practical task of
statesmanship is to try to walk up the difficult
road towards a better and more enduring peace.
11. We have virtually succeeded in banishing war
from East Asia. The Cold War has been laid to rest,
although some of the vestiges remain. We must not
now be prepared to accept a cold peace in East Asia.
We must aim for a warm and cooperative peace,
characterised by friendship, understanding, trust
and goodwill between us all. Such a peace is
essential for the Asian Renaissance that we must
seek to foster. Only such a peace can be durable
and enduring.
12. We have to appreciate that for understandable
reasons of realpolitik many may not have such an
interest or such an aim. Many even in East Asia may
not want such a warm and cooperative peace, because
they have scores to settle, axes to grind, vested
interests to protect, other objectives to pursue.
But it is up to us who believe in an East Asian
village of frienship, understanding, trust and
goodwill to act to turn the wishes that we carry in
our heart into concrete reality on the ground.
13. In order to do this, we do not have to be all
idealism and no realism. Indeed, we have to be
utterly realistic. We must not be soft-headed and
foolish. Indeed, we can afford neither. We cannot
afford to rely on hope and good fortune. Indeed, we
must make all the luck and good fortune that we
need. We do not have to disarm. Indeed, all of us
must be sufficiently equipped militarily to ensure
sufficient defence. For some, this must mean a
military build-up. For others, this must mean a
military draw-down.
14. The ancient Romans had a saying: Si vis pacem
para bellum. If you want peace, prepare for war. I
am afraid that if we prepare for war, war is what we
are likely to get. Fortunately for us in East Asia,
we do not have to prepare for war. There is no
necessity. And if we did, we would be betraying our
promise and our future. What we must do is to fight
for the peace that we want.
15. In my view, to build our East Asian Peace on
the basis of a balance of military power is not
possible. It is not advisable. And it is not
productive of the warm, cooperative and enduring
peace we must work for.
16. The reason it is not possible is because most
of us cannot afford the enormous expense that would
be involved. Can we all build military machines
that can balance the military capabilities of China?
Who can match the military might of the United
States, which today is clearly a military power of
East Asia? How does South Korea act to militarily
balance Japan? Does Thailand act to militarily
balance Vietnam? Does Cambodia act to militarily
balance China? Does Brunei act to militarily
balance Indonesia?
17. Whatever for? I can see all the manufacturers
of weapons rubbing their hands with glee at the very
thought. How wonderful. What a marvelous scenario.
Forget the military balance. Imagine the balance
sheets.
18. I can bear the response of the undeterred
Balance of Power enthusiasts: if no single nation
can create a Balance of Power on its own, create
alliances. But who will agree to create alliances
against China? Who will agree to create alliances
against the United States? Who will agree to create
alliances against Japan? Who will do so against
Indonesia?
19. There is an even stronger argument against the
traditional Balance of Power approach: it is silly.
What purpose is served in everyone balancing
everyone else? What are the psychological costs in
terms of suspicion and the erosion of trust and
confidence when we start to arm to deal with each
other and against everyone? As I have said before,
if we treat nations as if they are the enemy of
tomorrow, they will rapidly be the enemy of today.
If we act today to deal with tomorrow's imagined
threat, what is imagined will become a reality -
before tomorrow comes. We will be amazed how fast a
potential threat will become a real threat.
20. Is real peace ever created by this ruinous
process of military balancing? If everything works,
and we have great success, what we will achieve is
bankrupt economies, impoverished societies and a
barren and cold peace. Why should we settle for a
barren and cold peace? Especially when there is a
historic opportunity to put history behind us and to
build a warm and cooperative peace. To live in the
company and in the comfort of good neighbours.
21. I believe that if we want true peace, we must
be prepared to fight for true peace with all the
determination, creativity and tenacity that we
normally reserve for the prosecution of devastating
war. I also believe that the most opportune time
for making peace is when peace is least needed, when
tensions are low, when all nations are relaxed. It
is in such circumstances that peace can move
forward. We must make hay when the sun is shining
for when the storm clouds are in the sky it is too
difficult. And when it has started to pour, it is
too late.
22. We in East Asia must move now. And we must be
dogged in our determination.
23. The best way forward in creating the enduring,
warm and cooperative peace we want is to advance on
all fronts. We must act unilaterally, wherever
possible, to reduce tension, to solve conflicts, to
generate confidence. Let us not forget the old
Arabian saying that the whole road is clean if
everyone sweeps the front of his house.
24. Second, we must act bilaterally, trilaterally
and multilaterally to make peace and friendship.
The whole region of East Asia will be at peace if we
are a neighbourhood of good friends.
25. I believe that these processes should be aided
and abetted by a regional process, especially if the
regional process will contribute not only to peace
but also to empowerment and economic prosperity.
26. I am not certain whether the EEC process in
Europe has truly served the economic interests of
Western Europe. I have no doubt whatsoever that it
has served its primary purpose: the purpose of
making peace and friendship between enemies who had
twice this century given this globe two `world
wars'. We do not have to follow the footsteps of
Europe. We cannot. It is not feasible. But we can
follow Europe's example.
27. And we can also be guided by an example nearer
home.
28. In 1967, almost a generation ago, five nations
of Southeast Asia embarked on a historic and
unprecendented journey of regional reconciliation.
As political entities, they had lived side by side
for hundreds of years. But they had lived in
isolation, Indonesia under a Dutch master, Malaysia
and Singapore under the British, the Philippines
under first the Spanish and then the Americans.
Only Thailand had not been colonised, although it
too had been bullied. They were as strangers for
they did not know each other, although they knew in
great detail about faraway matters in Europe. The
European prejudices of their imperial masters
towards others in Europe were carried over and
replicated in the East, in their attitudes towards
each other.
29. In the early 1960s, there were great tensions
between many of them. There was a low intensity
war, called Confrontation, launched by Indonesia
against Malaysia and Singapore. One great nation,
Indonesia, was bigger in relation to its other Asean
members than China is in relation to the rest of
East Asia.
30. In an act of regional statesmanship, the five
countries of South East Asia decided to act to put
an end to their suspicions, their fears, and their
animosities. They decided that difficult though it
was, it was time to act, to try to become friends.
They congregated in Bangkok and formed the
Association of South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN).
31. ASEAN is now an association of seven nations
(after the membership of Brunei Darulsalam, and last
year, the membership of Vietnam). Before the end of
this century, ASEAN look set to be an association of
10, with the membership of Cambodia, Laos and
Myanmar.
32. What is critically important, ASEAN is now a
zone of true peace, a community of warm, cooperative
and enduring peace.
33. The journey was not short. The path was not
easy. But we all persevered. The outcome has been
priceless.
34. Because of ASEAN, we were not pressured into
becoming falling dominoes after the fall of Saigon.
Because of our resolute stand on Cambodia we `laid
down the law' and have firmly established the rules
of peaceful conduct and good citizenship in
Southeast Asia. Because of ASEAN, our collective
voice is heard. ASEAN was the European counterpart
organisation in Asia for the Asia-Europe summit
meeting held in Bangkok two months ago. ASEAN is at
the core of the Asean Regional Forum.
35. No model can be completely replicated. Nor
should any model be replicated. But models show
what can be done and how.
36. When we in Southeast Asia decided to build a
community of peace, a `c' `o' `p' without cops, an
egalitarian community without a policeman, because
all would try to behave in a manner befitting good
neighbours, the conditions in the region in 1967
were less propitious than are the conditions in East
Asia today. I believe it is now time to launch an
East Asian act of regional statesmanship whose
intention is to start East Asia on the long road
towards true peace and friendship.
37. This does not require turning our backs on any
of our friends, new or old. It does not mean
neglecting our military preparedness. It does not
mean abandoning the positive things that are already
in place and that contribute to peace between us.
Indeed, these should be strengthened.
38. But it does mean that the journey of a thousand
miles must begin. And it must begin with all of us
meeting and talking to each other, at the very
highest levels, for the first time in human history,
on the basis of equality and mutual respect, with
courage in our hearts and friendship on our minds.
39. I believe I have said more than enough on the
first challenge to Asian stability. Let me now say
a few words on the second challenge: the challenge
of creating a region of cooperative prosperity and
economic dynamism.
40. Again, the emphasis on the unilateral, what
each nation can do for itself is central. Despite
all the talk of borderless economies and
globalisation, economic dynamism and prosperity is
still made at home, within each state, within each
economy. We must continue to put economics in
command. We must continue to pursue productive
policies that propel our people to hard work and
sometimes, to almost superhuman feats.
41. One of the greatest dangers that threaten
global prosperity is the rise of the New
Mercantilism and the New Protectionism, motivated by
beggar-thy-neighbour policies. We must continue
with our half conscious, half unconscious policy of
`prosper-thy-neighbour' which has done so much good
for all of us in East Asia. Again, we must not
forget the bilateral, the trilateral, the
multilateral contributions to the creation of a
community of cooperative prosperity.
42. And of course, we should not neglect what has
to be done at the global level (in the WTO and
elsewhere), at the sub-regional level (in ASEAN), at
the super-regional level (in APEC) and at the trans-
continental level (in ASEM). We must also not
neglect the regional, what we should try to do
together in East Asia.
43. Again, the first step must begin with us
meeting and talking together over a host of issues.
I have long argued that it is time for East Asia to
meet to discuss not only peace and friendship but
also their common prosperity and their collective
economic dynamism. I have been greatly encouraged
by the process that is already in train.
44. In July 1994, Foreign Ministers of ASEAN plus
China, Japan and South Korea met at the ASEAN Post-
Ministerial Conference in Bangkok.
45. In July 1995, Foreign Ministers of ASEAN plus
China, Japan and South Korea met at the ASEAN Post-
Ministerial Conference in Brunei.
46. In February, the Foreign Ministers of ASEAN
plus China, Japan and South Korea met to plan the
first Asia-Europe Heads of State Meeting.
47. I am quite confident that this coming July in
Indonesia, the Foreign Ministers of ASEAN plus
China, Japan and South Korea will meet again.
48. It is the most natural thing to do. Indeed, it
would be somewhat unnatural if they did not in fact
meet.
49. ASEAN's economic ministers have also had
regular meetings with Japan's Minister of
International Trade and Industry. Indeed, a Working
Group on Economic Cooperation in Indochina and
Myanmar was established in September 1994.
50. In Osaka in November last year, ASEAN economic
ministers met jointly with economic ministers from
China, Japan and South Korea for the first time.
51. Our officials are in constant consultations of
course. At the ASEAN Summit in Bangkok recently,
Thailand proposed that Malaysia organise the first
meeting involving ASEAN, China, Japan and South
Korea for the cooperative development of the greater
Mekong basin. Prime Minister Goh Chok Tong, in his
opening address, proposed that at the coming
informal ASEAN Leader's Summit to be held in Jakarta
in December this year, the leaders of China, Japan
and South Korea also be invited for a meeting.
52. Let me confess that when I look back at the
history of the EAEG and the EAEC I am reminded of
Shakespeare's words from Romeo and Juliet:
"What's in a name? That which we call a rose
By any other name would smell as sweet."
53. Let me now come to the third central challenge
of Asian stability: the challenge of ensuring social
justice at home. The key elements of this challenge
may differ in part as between one country and
another. The challenges are too many to even
enumerate. They range from ensuring fair and
equitable income distribution, the eradication of
poverty, sound judicial systems and the rule of law
to the development of political systems, including
the necessity of democratic patterns of governance,
fair and popular participation in the economy as
well as the participation of all in the political,
social and cultural system.
54. Clearly enough, however well we do at the
international and regional level, in creating a good
global village and a prosperous and friendly
neighbourhood, we must never forget that true
stability begins at home, what we each do in our own
houses.
55. Most of us are great successes. We were once,
all of us, great failures. We have done titanic
things in confronting our failures and in generating
great successes. We must now do titanic things in
confronting our successes and in building upon these
great successes. The problems of success can be as
formidable as the problems of failures, although I
must confess I would always be happier dealing with
the problems of enormous success than dealing with
the problems of enormous failure.
56. Unfortunately we have to acknowledge that there
is a deliberate attempt to minimise what Asia has
been able to accomplish over the last generation.
There is the most intense marketing of the threats
in East Asia. There is the most serious attempt to
throw cold water on the entire East Asian `miracle',
a word we never used because it seems to suggest
that our accomplishments were done through magic,
rather than the hard work, the blood, the toil and
the tears of our people.
57. Cold water has its uses. It is particularly
useful for those of us whose heads are too big for
their bodies.
58. At the same time, let us not be cornered into
pessimism, into dependence and into a loss of
confidence. We have every reason to be confident.
Japan, like the rest of us, has every reason for
confidence.
59. Let us move forward together. Armed with hopes
for the future, fortified by the desire to work
together - to build a great East Asian home for the
peoples of East Asia, one that will be productive of
our interests and of the interests of all mankind.
60. And with that we would have brought peace and
stability to half of Asia. We can then focus on the
rest and god willing the whole of Asia would be
stable and prosperous.
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