Oleh/By		:	DATO' SERI DR. MAHATHIR BIN MOHAMAD 
Tempat/Venue 	: 	HILTON HOTEL, KUALA LUMPUR 
Tarikh/Date 	: 	15/08/96 
Tajuk/Title  	: 	THE 1996 REGIONAL CONFERENCE OF 
			HARVARD CLUBS OF ASIA 



     1.    I would like to thank the Harvard Club of Asia
    for  the  honour  of  addressing this  distinguished
    gathering  of  members  of an equally  distinguished
    Club.
    
    2.   I have been asked to talk on the subject: `Asia
    -  the challenges ahead'.  I am sure that Asia  will
    face  a lot of challenges but I believe that in  the
    last  few  years of the 20th century and on  to  the
    year 2020, Asia faces three very basic challenges.
    
    3.    The  first is the challenge of domestic reform
    and  revolution.   The second is  the  challenge  of
    regional  cooperation and friendship.  The third  is
    the  challenge of striving for a more just and  more
    productive new world order.
    
    4.    All three constitute what I would refer to  as
    the challenge of achieving an Asian Renaissance.
    
    5.     Of  these  three  basic  challenges,  perhaps
    domestic  challenge  is by far the  most  important.
    For  Asia  to  grow and prosper it must  accept  and
    manage  reform  and revolution in  individual  Asian
    countries.
    
    6.    Asia has done well so far but there is no time
    for  euphoria. There must be no resting on  laurels.
    We must understand that we have only just begun.  It
    is  even useful to minimise our own accomplishments,
    if we want to avoid irritating those who fear the so-
    called  `Asian  challenge',  those  who  have   lost
    confidence  in  their own ability to compete,  those
    societies which know that in order to meet the world
    head on they will need to change their ways but  are
    either unwilling or unable to do so.
    
    7.    Humility is good for us but it should  be  the
    humility  of good manners not the humility of  those
    with an inferiority complex which will only stunt or
    delay our progress.
    
    8.    Our  progress of course is not just  economic.
    We  have made political progress also, though not in
    the way approved by the West.
    
    9.    Domestically we have foregone much of our  old
    authoritarian  ways.  We are not all democratic  but
    elements of democratic thinking and caring  for  our
    people have influenced our thoughts and action.
    
    10.   Regionally there are still numerous  areas  of
    tension,   unresolved  boundary  issues   and   many
    potential   causes   of  conflict.    These   things
    notwithstanding, we have not had as  much  peace  in
    the last century and a half as we have now.  We have
    not  known such relative tranquillity for a  hundred
    and  fifty years.  There are no wars between nations
    in  East Asia.  We keep our powder dry, but the guns
    are silent.
    
    11.   Economically, we have been the world's  record
    breakers  in terms of dynamism and growth  for  more
    than  a  generation.  This is even  more  remarkable
    because as recently as 1950, Japan had a per  capita
    income  half that of India and Pakistan.   We  don't
    have  to  bring the per capita income of the  United
    States,  Switzerland and Sweden into the  reckoning.
    It  was  only in 1960 that the per capita income  of
    Malaysia reached that of Haiti.  Today, the standard
    of  living  of Malaysia is ahead of almost  all  the
    major countries in the Americas save only the United
    States and Canada.
    
    12.  By the year 2000, the gross regional product of
    the  East Asian economy will reach parity with  that
    of  Western Europe or Northern America, a giant leap
    when  it  is  noted  that even  in  1980  our  total
    regional  GDP  was only two thirds that  of  Western
    Europe or Northern America.  According to the  World
    Bank, by 2020, seven of the ten largest economies in
    the  world will be those of Asian countries.   There
    are some who believe that by the year 2030 East Asia
    will be the size of North America and Western Europe
    put  together.  These forecasts are not made on  the
    basis of simplistic straight line projections.
    
    13.  Unfortunately all these glorious statistics are
    not welcome by everyone.  Some countries are not too
    happy.   There  is  very  little  talk  about   Asia
    becoming  the engine of growth for the rest  of  the
    world. Instead there are ominous signs that spanners
    will  be  thrown  into  the  works,  frequently  and
    deliberately.
    
    14.   There is a political analog to Newton's  third
    law:  for  every  action, there is an  opposite  and
    equal  reaction.  In politics however, the  reaction
    may  not  always be equal, though it will  often  be
    opposite. Thus the World Bank's predictions on China
    have  cost  that nation dearly and will continue  to
    cost  China dearly.  The same goes for all the  talk
    on the East Asian `miracle'.
    
    15.   We  can of course look at the past  with  some
    satisfaction.  But as I said there is  no  room  for
    euphoria,  there  is no cause for  complacency.   We
    must never forget that pride comes before a fall.
    
    16.  Theodore Roosevelt said during the Second World
    War:  "The  only  thing  we have  to  fear  is  fear
    itself".  But there is the other side of  the  coin.
    For  some  of the more exuberant amongst  us  it  is
    worth reminding that what we may have to fear is the
    lack  of  fear itself.  Freedom from fear  leads  to
    complacency and over-confidence.  It is the  disease
    which  had  affected the old developed countries  of
    the West.
    
    17.   There is a second, more important, more  basic
    reason  why we must emphasise the necessity  of  the
    most  serious, single-minded pursuit of  reform  and
    revolution.  There truly are so many things wrong in
    our  societies that must be put right.  The distance
    to be travelled is so far and the time we must spend
    in traversing the distance is so short that the word
    `revolution' is apt.
    
    18.   I do not think we need spill a single drop  of
    blood.  The changes must be orderly, not tumultuous.
    But  revolutionary, orderly and radical change there
    must be.
    
    19.   What are the key areas for domestic reform and
    revolution?   The  exact priorities  are  of  course
    different in different Asian societies.  Although we
    have  made political progress many of us still  need
    to  discard  loyalty to old and clearly  impractical
    ideologies.  We have to make up our minds ourselves,
    without  any  push  by  others.   But  the  outdated
    economic   theories  which  had  resulted   in   the
    formulation  of  these ideologies have  been  proven
    wrong.   If we accept new economic models,  then  we
    must adjust our politics to suit them.
    
    20.   For  many, the need is for fundamental reform.
    For   some,   the  need  is  for  kaizen,   constant
    improvement, constant fine tuning, as our  societies
    continue  to be dramatically transformed.   In  some
    societies in the Western world, there is the  belief
    that 'if it ain't broke, don't fix it."  In all  our
    societies, we must bend to the kaizen principle:  if
    it isn't perfect, perfect it.
    
    21.  We in Malaysia have always practised democracy.
    Some may dispute this but let us remember that those
    holier  than  thou democrats are not too  particular
    about democratic principles when it comes to pushing
    their  views and their selfish policies  down  other
    people's  throats.   We are democratic  because  the
    essence of democracy is majority rule and the  right
    to   bring  down  a  Government  without  resort  to
    violence  and  civil  war.   We  therefore   commend
    democracy  as the ideal political system  for  Asian
    countries.
    
    22.    Still  it  is  foolish  to  even  think  that
    democracy  can  be  a  panacea.   The  theology   of
    democracy  can  sometimes be somewhat infantile  and
    some  of its most vociferous theologians must  think
    they are selling candy to small children.  I commend
    democracy despite the fact that democracy does  have
    many  weaknesses  and  can be unproductive  or  even
    counter-productive  at times.  I  commend  democracy
    despite  the  fact  that many Asian  countries  have
    succeeded  only  in  establishing democracies  where
    democracy's   weaknesses  run  riot,   rather   than
    building   democracies  where  democracy's  profound
    strengths hold sway.
    
    23.  Although Asian countries have mostly done well,
    there  is  still  the need for economic  reform  and
    revolution.   We have done remarkably  well  in  the
    past.   But we must never forget that the tremendous
    economic  results of yesterday were  the  result  of
    what   was   done  and  what  was  achieved   before
    yesterday.   We  must  now lay the  foundations  for
    equally  tremendous  results  tomorrow  and  in  the
    decades to come.
    
    24.  And we cannot do this without domestic economic
    reforms and continued societal revolution.  In  this
    regard,   I  believe  there  are  few  things   more
    important   than   the   struggle   for   increasing
    productivity.
    
    25.   Paul Krugman recently wrote that there  is  no
    such  thing  as the Asian `miracle'.  He  is  right.
    There was no waving of the magic wand.  There was no
    magic.   There is no mystique.  We did  it  the  old
    fashioned way, through the investment of an ocean of
    sweat,  through  the investment of massive  capital,
    and     through    improving    the    comprehensive
    productivity of our societies (what economists  call
    TFP,  `total factor productivity').  He is right  in
    saying  that the old fashioned way is the  only  way
    anyone  gets great economic results.  His theory  is
    right.  He is even right about many Asian tiger  and
    dragon  economies having done badly with  regard  to
    total factor productivity.
    
    26.   He  is only wrong with regard to some  of  his
    statistics.  And he is profoundly wrong in  assuming
    that   those   who   have  been  poor   productivity
    performers  in  the  past will be poor  productivity
    performers in the future.
    
    27.    If  the  East  Asian  economies  have   shown
    anything,  they have shown intellectual  honesty  in
    discovering  the obvious, in discovering  the  well-
    trodden  path  to  dynamic economic development,  in
    discovering  the  only  means of  achieving  massive
    growth.  Our genius has arisen from being able to do
    what  everybody  knows, in  being  able  to  do  the
    obvious, in being able to get our people to  scrape,
    save and sweat, to do what needs to be done.
    
    28.   What  East  Asians need  to  do  now,  without
    exception,  is to mount a massive productivity  push
    and  to  move our economic systems to new levels  of
    productivity performance.
    
    29.   We  may  not all succeed in our  struggle  for
    productivity.   Some will no doubt  fail.   We  must
    expect to pay the price.  If we fall we must get  up
    and push again.
    
    30.   The  sceptical world should watch what  Asians
    are  doing  and  take it as examples for  them,  for
    Asians who trade know that poor trading partners are
    no  good to anyone.  We want everyone to prosper for
    as  we all know a world divided into haves and  have
    nots   is  not  going  to  be  an  objective   worth
    struggling for.  Such a world is no good for anyone.
    
    31.   There  is a third item on our domestic  agenda
    which  needs to be emphasised.  We must ensure  that
    our  political development and economic growth  must
    be  accompanied with or result in social justice for
    all.
    
    32.   The challenge of social justice is as wide  as
    it is deep.  It ranges from the absolute eradication
    of  absolute  poverty,  to ensuring  sound  judicial
    systems,  the rule of law, equality, the  protection
    and  fostering  of women and children,  helping  the
    disadvantaged and those left behind by development.
    
    33.  The social justice agenda in all our nations is
    a   long   one.   In  meeting  the  social   justice
    challenge,  we  cannot go wrong if we sincerely  and
    seriously  bow  to the fact that every  one  of  our
    citizens  is  important.  To each  man,  he  is  the
    world.
    
    34.   Let  me  now  turn to the  second  fundamental
    challenge that Asia faces: the challenge of regional
    friendship and prosperity.
    
    35.  So many of us have been strangers to each other
    for so long, so many of us have been adversaries  of
    each  other  for so long, that too many of  us  have
    never  dared  to ask the most basic and  obvious  of
    questions:  why  can we not, why should  we  not  be
    friends?
    
    36.   We  need  to  escape the mindset  dictated  in
    capitals in other continents, many of whom  may  not
    have  a  similar  interest  in  our  peace  and  our
    friendship.   It is touching how so many  of  us  in
    Asia  seem to assume that others can have a  greater
    interest in the welfare of Asia than Asians do.   It
    is  remarkable  how much we borrow  from  others  in
    terms of what to think about, how to think about the
    things we think about, even what to think about  the
    things we think about.  Colonialism is dead.  But it
    is   amazing   how  vigorous  is  our   intellectual
    subservience  and  how  deep  is  our  psychological
    servitude.
    
    37.  The minimal task of regional statesmanship lies
    in  ensuring that none of us slip down the  slippery
    slope  towards violent conflict.  The real  task  of
    regional  statesmanship lies in building a warm  and
    cooperative peace in our East Asian Home - initially
    and in the rest of Asia eventually.
    
    38.   In  trying  to do this, we can  encourage  and
    support  the constructive assistance of our friends.
    But the East Asian Peace that  we must build must be
    built largely by  us  on  the  basis of non military
    balances and alliances.
    
    39.   The  undeterred hard-core Balance of  Military
    Power  enthusiasts, who very often  call  themselves
    `Realists' with a big `R', and who are to  be  found
    in  surprising numbers even in Asia, will  no  doubt
    say that if no single nation can create a Balance of
    Power  on  its own, the obvious answer is to  create
    alliances.   It is interesting to note that  amongst
    these so-called `Realists' there is not a single one
    who  advocates an alliance against the United States
    or even against Japan.  It is quite obvious who they
    want  to create an alliance against.  China  is  the
    mother of all threats.  When there is a shortage  of
    security threats, China can always be trotted up.
    
    40.   Indeed, there is today, especially  since  the
    World Bank forecast of China emerging as the world's
    number   one  economic  power,  the  most   vigorous
    marketing  of  the China threat.  We have  not  seen
    such  vigorous  marketing since  the  days  of  John
    Foster  Dulles.  I am most perturbed  since  I  know
    that  once we treat nations as if they are the enemy
    of  tomorrow, they will rapidly become the enemy  of
    today.
    
    41.   In  speaking  against  the  Balance  of  Power
    approach to the making of the East Asian Peace, I am
    not    dismissing   the   importance   of   military
    capability.  Obviously, some nations in  the  region
    must   militarily  build  up  even  as  some  should
    militarily draw down.
    
    42.   The  hard Balance of Power approach must  mean
    the creation of alliances and counter-alliances, the
    drawing  of lines between friends and foes  and  the
    division of East Asia into rival camps.  This is not
    only counter-productive but is most unwise.
    
    43.   When we start to arm to the teeth in order  to
    be  able  to adequately `deal' militarily with  each
    other and to forcefully balance each other, what are
    the  psychological costs in terms of suspicion,  the
    erosion  of  trust and the undermining  of  whatever
    confidence  that had been built; not to  mention  of
    course  the horrendous cost and waste of  money  and
    time and effort.  If we prepare for war, are we  not
    more  likely to get war rather than peace?  Is  real
    peace,  as opposed to the mere absence of war,  ever
    created  by the ruinous process of vigorous military
    balancing?
    
    44.  If we truly want an East Asian Peace we must be
    prepared to fight for it with the will and the means
    that  are  normally reserved for the prosecution  of
    war.   And  the most opportune time to  launch  this
    fight for the East Asian Peace is now, when tensions
    are  at  their ebb, when nations are relaxed, indeed
    when peace is already there.
    
    45.  It is under these propitious circumstances that
    the foundations of an enduring, warm and cooperative
    peace must be built and buttressed.
    
    46.   The  conditions in Southeast Asia in the  mid-
    Sixties  when  the members of ASEAN  launched  their
    historic  act  of regional statesmanship  were  much
    less  propitious than are the conditions  prevailing
    in  East Asia today.  I believe that it is time  for
    East  Asia  to  launch  a similar  act  of  regional
    statesmanship.
    
    47.   The  East  Asian  Peace  must  allow  for  the
    constructive contribution of all the states of  this
    region.   An  outside  deterrent  is  not  only  not
    necessary but can run counter to the objective.  The
    East  Asian Prosperity must similarly allow for  the
    constructive  contribution of all  states,  big  and
    small,  for  all Asian states have shown a  capacity
    for   level-headedness,  irrespective  of  size   or
    situation.
    
    48.   East  Asia  must  be strongly  wedded  to  the
    principle of `Open Regionalism'.  This means that if
    we  regionally cooperate amongst ourselves on issues
    of  trade,  the  result  of  that  cooperation  must
    be  a  reduction  of the barriers not  only  between
    ourselves but also to the outside world.
    
    49.   At the beginning of my speech, I spoke of what
    I  thought  were  the three key  components  of  the
    making of the Asian Renaissance: domestic reform and
    revolution, regional friendship and prosperity,  and
    contributing  to  a  better,  more  just  and   more
    productive new world order.
    
    50.   Since  the  term `new world order'  was  first
    proclaimed,  there  has been  an  almost  incredible
    attempt   amongst  some  to  banish  it   from   our
    consciousness.  They who were so enthusiastic before
    seem not to want a new world order now.  I speak  of
    a new world order because I believe we do need a new
    world  order, one in which there is greater justice,
    greater  mutual  respect, greater egalitarianism,  a
    stronger  sense of global fraternity,  much  greater
    global peace and much greater global prosperity.
    
    51.   Asia  must  rise.   It  must  make  a  greater
    contribution to the global commonwealth of man.   It
    must contribute to greater justice in the world,  to
    greater  mutual  respect in the  world,  to  greater
    egalitarianism  in the world, to greater  fraternity
    in the world, to much greater peace in the world and
    to much greater prosperity in the world.
    
    52.   In  order to do this, Asia must  put  its  own
    house  in  order.  Asia must empower  itself.   Asia
    must be worthy of leadership.  And Asia must rise to
    the challenge of contribution.
    
    53.  You may have noticed that at the very start,  I
    set a 2020 time horizon.  I will not be there to see
    the  day.  But I hope that by then enough will  have
    been  achieved  that we can see the glimmer  of  the
    Asian Renaissance of which I spoke.
    
    54.   Many  have  spent a great deal of  their  time
    throwing cold water on the very idea that Asia is on
    the  rise  and  that a resurgent Asia will  see  the
    return   of  history  --  to  the  days  when   Asia
    contributed its fair share to modernity and to human
    civilisation.
    
    55.  We have heard ad nauseum the reasons why we are
    all  destined for the dustbin of history.   For  too
    many  years, the Asia-sceptics were right.  What  is
    worse,  for too many years, we deserved to  go  down
    the tubes.
    
    56.   But for more than a generation now, the  Asia-
    sceptics have been proven wrong.
    
    57.   Cold water has its uses.  It is necessary  for
    those of us whose heads are inordinately large.  But
    in  this  phase  of history, we have confounded  the
    Asia-sceptics.  May we continue to confound them and
    their cynicism.
    
    58.   May  we have the wisdom to avoid the pitfalls,
    may  we have the tenacity to sustain our development
    and  may we have the will to face all the challenges
    and  the stamina to complete the journey towards the
    Asian Renaissance.

 
 



 
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